By Steve Blumenthal March 2, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,306 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Cyclical Bear Market Targets - 02-25-2022
February 25, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal A very brief OMR post this week. Good friend Jonathan D.T. Ward, author of China's Vision of Victory, was in the press this morning, and I thought I'd share the interview with you. With the Ukraine-Russia conflict in mind and the recovery rally in equities [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Cyclical Bear Market Targets - 02-24-2022
By Steve Blumenthal February 23, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,225 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar – How Inflationary Depressions Come About - 02-18-2022
February 18, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "Where the money and credit flow is important to determining what happens. For example, when they no longer go into lending that fuels increases in economic demand and instead go into other currencies and inflation-hedge assets, they fail to stimulate economic [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Market Breadth Continues to Weaken - 02-17-2022
By Steve Blumenthal February 16, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,475 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar – Understanding Debt, Inflation, and Asset Cycles - 02-11-2022
February 11, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "In the end, there is always inflation." - Ray Dalio, Co-Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Bridgewater Associates, LP The hottest inflation news in 40 years hit the wires this week. The January Consumer Price Index report showed the most significant [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Inflation Surges 7.5%… 10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 2% - 02-10-2022
By Steve Blumenthal February 9, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,587 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar – A Story of Hope - 02-4-2022
February 4, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal Pause the story of hope for just a minute as I do my best to set the stage. Jeremy Grantham is calling our current state a "Super Bubble." If you missed it, last week's On My Radar was titled "Three Sigma – Three Events in the Last 100 Years (Until Now)." [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Dr. Copper Turns Negative on the Global Economy - 02-4-2022
By Steve Blumenthal February 2, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,350 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Three Sigma – Three Events in the Last 100 Years (Until Now) - 01-28-2022
January 28, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “A two sigma is the kind of deviation that should occur every 44 years. Because we're a little wilder and less efficient than we should be, it happens every 35 years. Every 35 years feels about right… one event in a career and twice in a lifetime. Three [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Downside Risks Remain - 01-27-2022
By Steve Blumenthal January 26, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,350 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Current Valuations and Possible Future Returns (2022 to 2032) - 01-21-2022
January 21, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “I don’t think the Federal Reserve and this leadership has the stamina to act decisively. In order to turn the market around to a more non-inflationary attitude, you have to shock the market. You can’t raise interest rates bit by bit.” - Dr. Henry [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Zweig Bond Model, Margin Debt Rate-of-Change and Global Recession Model Signaling Caution - 01-19-2022
By Steve Blumenthal January 19, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,570 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Investors are “All In” – 71% Stocks, 15% Cash, 14% Bonds - 01-14-2022
January 14, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” – Milton Friedman (July 31, 1912 – November 16, 2006), American [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Equity Signals Remain Bullish; Fixed Income Signal Moves to Sell - 01-14-2022
By Steve Blumenthal January 12, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,793 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
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