February 11, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "In the end, there is always inflation." - Ray Dalio, Co-Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Bridgewater Associates, LP The hottest inflation news in 40 years hit the wires this week. The January Consumer Price Index report showed the most significant [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Inflation Surges 7.5%… 10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 2% - 02-10-2022
By Steve Blumenthal February 9, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,587 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar – A Story of Hope - 02-4-2022
February 4, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal Pause the story of hope for just a minute as I do my best to set the stage. Jeremy Grantham is calling our current state a "Super Bubble." If you missed it, last week's On My Radar was titled "Three Sigma – Three Events in the Last 100 Years (Until Now)." [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Dr. Copper Turns Negative on the Global Economy - 02-4-2022
By Steve Blumenthal February 2, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,350 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Three Sigma – Three Events in the Last 100 Years (Until Now) - 01-28-2022
January 28, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “A two sigma is the kind of deviation that should occur every 44 years. Because we're a little wilder and less efficient than we should be, it happens every 35 years. Every 35 years feels about right… one event in a career and twice in a lifetime. Three [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Downside Risks Remain - 01-27-2022
By Steve Blumenthal January 26, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,350 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Current Valuations and Possible Future Returns (2022 to 2032) - 01-21-2022
January 21, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “I don’t think the Federal Reserve and this leadership has the stamina to act decisively. In order to turn the market around to a more non-inflationary attitude, you have to shock the market. You can’t raise interest rates bit by bit.” - Dr. Henry [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Zweig Bond Model, Margin Debt Rate-of-Change and Global Recession Model Signaling Caution - 01-19-2022
By Steve Blumenthal January 19, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,570 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Investors are “All In” – 71% Stocks, 15% Cash, 14% Bonds - 01-14-2022
January 14, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” – Milton Friedman (July 31, 1912 – November 16, 2006), American [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Equity Signals Remain Bullish; Fixed Income Signal Moves to Sell - 01-14-2022
By Steve Blumenthal January 12, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,793 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Tough Love in Fed Minutes - 01-7-2022
January 7, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “An optimist understands that life can be a bumpy road, but at least it is leading somewhere. They learn from mistakes and failures and are not afraid to fail again.” – Harvey McKay, seven-time New York Times best-selling author of "Swim With The Sharks [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Tough Love in Fed Minutes - 01-5-2022
By Steve Blumenthal January 5, 2022 S&P 500 Index -- 4,793 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: 2022 Investment Outlook - 12-31-2021
December 31, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “In my view, modern monetary theory ("MMT") has been tried, tested, and failed.” - Dr. Lacy Hunt, Executive Vice President, Hoisington Investment Management Company Let me begin by wishing you a Happy New Year. Today, I share an outstanding discussion. Camp [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – 2022 Investment Outlook - 12-29-2021
By Steve Blumenthal December 29, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,793 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Merry Christmas: An All-Time Record High for SPY - 12-23-2021
By Steve Blumenthal December 22, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,734 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the return [...]Read More >
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