July 2, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “We learned a long time ago… that you can’t make a good deal with a bad person.” – Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, Investor, and Philanthropist As you ease into your long holiday weekend, I thought I’d share with you two presentations. [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – The Great Art Cashin: “Stick with the drill – stay wary, alert and very, very nimble.” - 07-1-2021
By Steve Blumenthal June 30, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,319 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the amount of return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: One Kick 10,000 Times - 06-25-2021
June 25, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.” – Bruce Lee, Martial Artist, Actor, Director, Instructor, and Philosopher A few days into my first job, Norman Tonkin pulled me into his [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Households Near Record High Stock Ownership; GMO 7-Year Real Return Forecast Near Record Low - 06-23-2021
By Steve Blumenthal June 23, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,241 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the amount of return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Valuations, Trend, and Debt - 06-18-2021
June 18, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “Investing is the intersection of economics and psychology. The economics, the valuation of the business is not hard. The Psychology—How much do you buy? Do you buy it at this price? Do you wait for a lower price? What do you do when it looks like the world [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – All Eyes on the Fed Today - 06-16-2021
By Steve Blumenthal June 16, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,248 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the amount of [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Inside the Fed – Richard Fisher - 06-11-2021
June 11, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “If it is not transitory, and I hope it is, then the weed of inflation grows and kills the garden.” – Richard Fisher, Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas “The weed of inflation.” Love the analogy. And the topic of inflation was at [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Inflation Concerns Persist; S&P 500 Approaches Record High - 06-9-2021
By Steve Blumenthal June 9, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,232 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the amount of [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Howard Marks’s “A Bowl Full of Tickets,” and William White on Inflation - 06-4-2021
June 4, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop." – Herb Stein, Senior Fellow of the American Enterprise Institute Over the last several On My Radar posts, I’ve shared my notes from the 2021 Mauldin Strategic Investment Conference (SIC). We’ll continue this [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Model Favors Value Over Growth - 06-3-2021
By Steve Blumenthal June 2, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,201 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the amount of return [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Stan Druckenmiller at His Best - 05-28-2021
May 28, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "I will say it's about the most challenging time to talk about the market and the economy I can remember since I got in the business. I actually believe we are in the most unique set of economic circumstances that I've seen in my career, and certainly in the [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Intermediate-Term Trends: Bullish Trends in U.S. Fixed Income, Equities, and Gold; Dollar Bear - 05-26-2021
By Steve Blumenthal May 26, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,196 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the amount of [...]Read More >
On My Radar: SIC2021 – Real Estate, Carbon Credits, and Rule #9 - 05-21-2021
May 21, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “So my issue here is, in the future, as we go forward, if we look at Federal spending as a % of GDP, the CBO is saying if the 10-year Treasury goes to 4.9%, which is their normalized projection, the interest expense alone will be close to 30% of GDP every year, [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – GMO’s 7-Year Asset Class Returns - 05-19-2021
By Steve Blumenthal May 19, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,098 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the amount of [...]Read More >
On My Radar: SIC2021 – Deflation? Inflation? Transitory? Define It? - 05-14-2021
May 14, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “You have to go back 40 years – to Q3 1981 – to find a higher quarterly year-over-year wage growth number (+8.5%). This is not an anomaly. This is not a single quarter aberration. This is not transitory. This is four straight quarters of the highest wage growth [...]Read More >
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