April 16, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board.... Focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity.... Most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 14, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,074 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals provides a summary of select Equity, Fixed Income, Sentiment, Economic and Gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums (the amount of [...]Read More >

April 9, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “Irrational exuberance is the psychological basis of a speculative bubble. I define a speculative bubble as a situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm, which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, in the process [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 7, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 4,074 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals is a summary of select Equity Trade Signals, Investor Sentiment Indicators, Fixed Income Trade Signals, Economic Indicators (Select Recession and Inflation Watch Indicators), and [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 31, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 3,973 (close) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals is a summary of select Equity Trade Signals, Investor Sentiment Indicators, Fixed Income Trade Signals, Economic Indicators (Select Recession and Inflation Watch Indicators), and [...]Read More >

March 26, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal Once a quarter or so, I write about debt. We sit at the end of a long-term debt supercycle. Few of us have seen one before, though they have happened many times throughout history. The last was in the mid-1930s. Last week, my partner John Mauldin hit it out [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 24, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 3,919 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession, and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

March 19, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "This is not the end, this is not even the beginning of the end, this is just perhaps the end of the beginning." – Sir Winston Churchill On a warm summer's evening On a train bound for nowhere I met up with the gambler We were both too tired to sleep So [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 17, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 3,942 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession, and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

March 12, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “Cycles are inevitable. Every once in a while, an up- or down-let goes on for a long time and/or to a great extreme, and people start to say ‘this time it’s different.’” – Howard Marks, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman, Oaktree Capital Management Less spending, [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 10, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 3,898 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession, and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

March 5, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “No generation has a right to contract debts greater than can be paid off during the course of its own existence.” – George Washington to James Madison (1789) New week, same poker game. Powell studied the table and played his hand. I hold, he said. No change in [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 3, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 3,881 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession, and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

February 26, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "The ratio of the price of copper to the price of gold is a great inflation indicator. Copper has rallied a great deal while gold is slightly down. This tells us the U.S. 10-Year Treasury should be at 2.25% right now." – Jeffrey Gundlach, Founder, [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal February 17, 2021 S&P 500 Index -- 3,885 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes [...]Read More >