August 28, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.” - From Ernest Hemingway’s 1926 novel, The Sun Also Rises Yesterday, from beautiful Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell delivered what [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 26, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,449 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

August 21, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “The US is extremely important as it still provides the world with the most important reserve currency. Once faith in that currency declines and the US dollar enters a decisive multi-year bear cycle, hell could break loose.” – Felix Zulauf, Founder, Zulauf [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 19, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,392 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

August 14, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “It’s a battle between the Fed’s $750 billion SPV to buy corporate IG and HY bonds and those who don’t have access to this free money. And funds, like mine, are buying what the Fed is buying. Thus, the oversubscription of new offerings. ETFs must put the [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 12, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,355 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

August 7, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.” “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” - Benjamin Graham, “the Father of Value Investing” and Author of The [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 6, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,327 (close) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

July 31, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal News flash: The 10-year Treasury yield falls to 0.52% after record GDP contraction. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was lower at 1.18%. The bond market has it right. Every weekday, an Axios Markets email hits my inbox. This morning’s post caught my [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 29, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,227 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

July 24, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “For those clinging to the recovery narrative, I just don’t see it.” – David Rosenberg, President and Chief Economist & Strategist, Rosenberg Research Last week we took a look at coming return probabilities, which showed the expected 10-year future return [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 22, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,254 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

July 17, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “We believe the corona crisis is the most disruptive global event since World War II, and far surpasses the trauma of the 2007-2009 Great Recession.” – A. Gary Shilling, financial analyst and commentator, Insight As you read today, keep this important point [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 15, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,225 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

July 10, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “My experience in this business is if everyone is running in one direction and you start to run in the other, and you seem crazy, if you're right, the rewards are enormous.” – Catherine Wood, Founder, CEO, CIO, and Portfolio Manager, ARK Investment Management [...]Read More >