January 10, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good. Even now, Charlie (Munger) and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal January 8, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,258 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

January 3, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “First, investors should understand that the present combination of low interest rates and elevated stock market valuations implies low prospective returns on the entire portfolio mix. Last week, our estimate of prospective 12-year nominal total returns on a [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal January 2, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,230 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

December 20, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “I will go to my grave believing that the financial crisis happened because of bubbles made by easy money.” – Stan Druckenmiller, Former Chairman and President, Duquesne Capital (Bloomberg Interview) I’ve seen three outstanding buying opportunities in my [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal December 18, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,138 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

December 13, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “It hasn’t proven to be temporary. It hasn’t proved to be reversible without massive injections of liquidity. Which means that structural issues are playing a role.” – Mohamed A. El-Erian Chief Economic Advisor, Allianz (on Bloomberg TV) Let’s open this [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal December 11, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,138 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

December 6, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Given the high valuations I see, plus these divergences between many different indices, I am aware that many bull markets have ended with a rally similar to what we have seen since August.” – Ned Davis Founder, Ned Davis Research (CNBC) A few years ago, my [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal December 4, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,140 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal November 27, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,140 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

November 22, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal "So the reason why we raised interest rates [in late 1999-2000] is because—generally is because we see inflation as moving up—or, in danger of moving up significantly, and we really don’t see that now." – Jerome H. Powell, Chair, Board of Governors of the [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal November 20, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,107 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

November 15, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Even if you are on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.” – Will Rogers I keep a dashboard of valuation indicators in my research folder, organized neatly by type. Right now, they are high. But how high and what does that mean? We’ll [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal November 13, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,092 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >