February 14, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal "Investing is the intersection of economics and psychology.” "The economics, the valuation of the business, is not hard. The psychology—How much do you buy? Do you buy it at this price? Do you wait for a lower price? What do you do when it looks like the [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal February 12, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,370 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

February 7, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “For when the One Great Scorer comes to mark against your name, He writes not that you won or lost, but how you played the game!” – Grantland Rice In 1907, sportswriter Grantland Rice saw what he would call the greatest thrill he ever witnessed in his years [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal February 5, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,324 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

January 31, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “The US economy has experienced its slowest recovery from a recession in the post-World War II era, and the longer it lasts the more evidence there is that normal cyclical patterns are missing. And their absence means market participants shouldn’t rely on [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal January 29, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,276 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

January 24, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “We’re just in the craziest monetary-fiscal [policy] mix in history. It’s so explosive, it defies imagination. It reminds me a lot of early ’99 [when inflation was low and stock markets were soaring]. The difference is the fed funds rate was 4.75% — today [...]Read More >

What is (and isn’t) actually implied by VIX data? Stephen Blumenthal, CIO at CMG Capital Management Group joins S&P DJI’s Ed Ware and Hamish Preston to explore what VIX data means and how to put Wall Street’s fear gauge to work. [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal January 22, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,328 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

January 17, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “The last five major global cyclical events were the early 1990s recession — largely occasioned by the U.S. Savings & Loan crisis, the collapse of Japan Inc. after the stock market crash of 1990, the Asian crisis of the mid-1990s, the fabulous technology [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal January 15, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,282 (open) Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in [...]Read More >

January 10, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good. Even now, Charlie (Munger) and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal January 8, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,258 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

January 3, 2020 By Steve Blumenthal “First, investors should understand that the present combination of low interest rates and elevated stock market valuations implies low prospective returns on the entire portfolio mix. Last week, our estimate of prospective 12-year nominal total returns on a [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal January 2, 2020 S&P 500 Index -- 3,230 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >