November 8, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “In a world where growth is meager and monetary policy less effective, governments will have a much greater effect.” – Joe Kalish Chief Global Macro Strategist, Ned David Research On my way into Philadelphia for a breakfast meeting yesterday, I listened to [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Recession Update (No Current Sign of U.S. Recession Next Six Months) - 11-6-2019
By Steve Blumenthal November 6, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,076 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: We Will Burn the Debt - 11-1-2019
November 1, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Cycles are inevitable. Every once in a while, an up- or down-leg goes on for a long time and/or to a great extreme, and people start to say ‘this time it’s different.’” – Howard Marks The Federal Reserve cut rates a quarter percent on Wednesday. Chairman [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Short-term Investor Sentiment Reading Suggests Caution, Trend Signals Remain Bullish - 10-30-2019
By Steve Blumenthal October 30, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,045 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Plunge Protection Team is Real - 10-25-2019
October 25, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal "Experts discern a pattern: a louder-than-usual howl against elites in countries where democracy is a source of disappointment, corruption is seen as brazen, and a tiny political class lives large while the younger generation struggles to get by." - Declan [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed - 10-23-2019
By Steve Blumenthal October 23, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,996 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: A Game of Poker - 10-18-2019
October 18, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “If we pay attention to cycles, we can come out ahead. If we study past cycles, understand their origins and import, and keep alert for the next one, we don’t have to reinvent the wheel in order to understand every investment environment anew. And we have [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – The Trend Remains Your Friend - 10-16-2019
By Steve Blumenthal October 16, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,990 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Unlike Any Period Since the Late 1930s - 10-11-2019
October 11, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “I believe that we are on a classic journey that we haven’t seen in our lifetimes but has happened many times before, most recently in the late 1930’s. It is being driven by the same big forces that drove the dynamics in the late 1930’s. In particular, now, [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Inflation Not Yet a Problem - 10-9-2019
By Steve Blumenthal October 9, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,914 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Temperature’s Rising - 10-4-2019
October 4, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “ There's a way to do it better - find it." - Thomas Edison " It's kind of fun to do the impossible." - Walt Disney Fresh signs of a global economic slowdown have driven equity markets lower this week and driven expectations for a Fed rate cut higher. [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Fixed Income and Equity Trends Holding - 10-2-2019
By Steve Blumenthal October 2, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,924 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Zulauf’s Bottom Line, What’s Ahead - 09-27-2019
September 27, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “When I look at markets, I first start to create a long-term big picture. I look at structural trends in economics, in demographics, in politics, etc. etc. And then I try to analyze the business cycle and were we sit in the cycle.” – Felix [...]Read More >
Trade Signals – Despite Geopolitical Uncertainty, Equity & Fixed Income Signals Remain Bullish - 09-25-2019
By Steve Blumenthal September 25, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,968 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Unintended Consequences in a Complex System - 09-20-2019
September 20, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “I’m not saying that the past is prologue in an identical way. What I am saying that the basic cause/effect relationships are analogous: a) approaching the ends of the short-term and long-term debt cycles, while b) the internal politics is driven by large [...]Read More >
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