August 16, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “The experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath revealed that a lower bound on interest rates can be a serious obstacle for fighting recessions. However, the zero lower bound is not a law of nature; it is a policy choice. The central message of this [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 14, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,894 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

August 9, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal Foreign exchange volatility is not new in modern finance, though relatively speaking it has been reasonably muted in recent decades compared to preceding ones.  Uncertainty around foreign exchange suppresses business investment in that the ability to repay [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 7, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,858 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite equity market, investor sentiment, fixed income, economic, recession and gold market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk [...]Read More >

August 2, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal Like the pine trees linin' the windin' road I've got a name, I've got a name Like the singin' bird and the croakin' toad I've got a name, I've got a name And I carry it with me like my daddy did But I'm living the dream that he kept hid Movin' me down the [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 31, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 3,016 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

July 26, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.” – Mario Draghi, President, European Central Bank (July 26, 2012) Still reeling from the financial crisis, central bankers were scrambling to [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 24, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,995 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

July 19, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “I think now is a good time 1) to look at past paradigms and paradigm shifts and 2) to focus on the paradigm that we are in and how it might shift because we are late in the current one and likely approaching a shift.” – Ray Dalio, “Paradigm Shifts” (July 17, [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 17, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,995 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

July 12, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “[I]f you could say well give me one rule to follow as an investor, just one, it would be, do the things that are unpopular. Everything else being equal, the things that are popular are overpriced the things that are unpopular are underpriced.” - Howard [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 10, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,989 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 3, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,978 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

June 28, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “You should invest more when the tickets in the bowl are in your favor. You should invest less when they are against your favor and what determines the mix of the tickets in the bowl largely where we stand in the cycle.” - Howard Marks Oaktree Capital and [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 26, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,926 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >