February 15, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal "We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness." - Daniel Kahneman It’s been a fantastic equity market rally but keep your lights on, from a statistical perspective, odds favor a retest of the December low. I came across the [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal February 13, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,755 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

February 8, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “He went from being “Pragmatic Powell” to a “Powell Put.” But I do worry about people buying the dip because it does remind me a little of how the credit crisis developed with sub-prime starting to crack in 2007 it cracked down to $80 and people bought that [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal February 6, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,730 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

February 1, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “It's 'pretty obvious' the Fed is moving to the whims of the markets.” - Art Cashin Managing Director, Director of Floor Operations UBS Financial Services Inc. “It is impossible for Jay Powell to be more dominated by market-world than he is today. Even in [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal January 30, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,663 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

January 25, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “More money than fools or more fools than money. When there is more money than fools asset prices go up. When there are more fools than money, asset prices go down.” – Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & CEO, Gavekal Research At last March’s Mauldin [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal January 23, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,643 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

January 18, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Overoptimism and overconfidence are two well-known psychological traits of our species. They are particularly dangerous in the late stages of an economic cycle where these terrible twins result in investors overestimating return and underestimating risk – a [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal January 16, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,614 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

January 11, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal [Trump tweets, Xi Jinping, Global debt, the ECB Greenspan Put and Powell QT, He won’t do the same damn thing] "We didn’t start the fire It was always burning Since the world’s been turning We didn’t start the fire No we didn’t light it But we tried to [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal January 9, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,585 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

January 4, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “History is on our side.  There have been 13 Fed tightening cycles since 1950. Ten of these landed the economy in recession, and neither the consensus nor the Fed staff saw them coming when they actually started. So before knowing anything else, the fact that [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal January 2, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,507 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

December 28, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Monetary tightening by central banks is like trying to pull a brick across a rough surface with elastic: nothing happens; still nothing happens;  then it leaps up and hits you in the face.” – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph On My Radar is a letter [...]Read More >