March 8, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “To refer to a personal taste of mine, I’m going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the ‘Hallelujah Chorus’ in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it’s the same with [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 6, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,780 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

March 1, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Optimism is highly valued, socially and in the market; people and firms reward the providers of dangerously misleading information more than they reward truth tellers. One of the lessons of the financial crisis that led to the Great Recession is that there are [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal February 27, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,794 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

February 22, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “The markets believed in December that the Fed was on the precipice of making a huge policy error – and the central bank pulled back.  End of story… From my lens, the Fed had already overtightened and recession risks for this year are elevated and on the [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal February 20, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,779 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

February 15, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal "We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness." - Daniel Kahneman It’s been a fantastic equity market rally but keep your lights on, from a statistical perspective, odds favor a retest of the December low. I came across the [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal February 13, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,755 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

February 8, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “He went from being “Pragmatic Powell” to a “Powell Put.” But I do worry about people buying the dip because it does remind me a little of how the credit crisis developed with sub-prime starting to crack in 2007 it cracked down to $80 and people bought that [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal February 6, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,730 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

February 1, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “It's 'pretty obvious' the Fed is moving to the whims of the markets.” - Art Cashin Managing Director, Director of Floor Operations UBS Financial Services Inc. “It is impossible for Jay Powell to be more dominated by market-world than he is today. Even in [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal January 30, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,663 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

January 25, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “More money than fools or more fools than money. When there is more money than fools asset prices go up. When there are more fools than money, asset prices go down.” – Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & CEO, Gavekal Research At last March’s Mauldin [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal January 23, 2019 S&P 500 Index -- 2,643 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

January 18, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Overoptimism and overconfidence are two well-known psychological traits of our species. They are particularly dangerous in the late stages of an economic cycle where these terrible twins result in investors overestimating return and underestimating risk – a [...]Read More >