October 19, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “A generational opportunity hidden in plain sight. Its status of loneliness and ‘vox clamantis in deserto’ (a voice crying out in the wilderness) makes for potential outsized returns.” – Francesco Filia Plan 1: Buy-hold-rebalance. Buy lowest fee index funds [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal October 17, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,809 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

October 12, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “I want to reiterate my headline: managing debt crises is all about spreading out the pain of the bad debts, and this can almost always be done well if one’s debts are in one’s own currency. The biggest risks are typically not from the debts themselves, but [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal October 10, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,840 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

October 5, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Typically the worst debt bubbles are not accompanied by high and rising inflation, but by asset price inflation financed by debt growth. That is because central banks make the mistake of accommodating debt growth because they are focused on inflation and/or [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal October 3, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,931 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

September 28, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “The key to handling debt crises well lies in policy makers’ knowing how to use their levers well and having the authority that they need to do so, knowing at what rate per year the burdens will have to be spread out, and who will benefit and who will suffer [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal September 26, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,924 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

September 21, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “I am writing this on the tenth anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis in order to offer the perspective of an investor who navigated that crisis well because I had developed a template for understanding how all debt crises work. I am sharing that template [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal September 19, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,909 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

September 14, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Crashes are never caused by poor earnings or lower economic growth. Those things cause recessions, but they do not cause crashes. One thing, and one thing only, can cause a crash: forced selling.” – Matt Maley, The Real Reason for the 1987 Market [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal September 12, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,890 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

September 7, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “[A] grain falling on a red spot can, by domino-like action, cause sliding at other nearby red spots.” – Mark Buchanan, Ubiquity, Why Catastrophes Happen I woke up early last Saturday morning and found John Mauldin’s Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter on [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal September 5, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,888 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

August 31, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “The best insurance policy against missing big market moves is to have more than one online brokerage account.” – Barron’s, March 11, 2000 If you feel it appropriate, share this piece with your client(s).  It's about late cycles, investor behavior and risk [...]Read More >