June 15, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “So I think you’ll see rates go up and stocks go up in tandem at the end of the year.” “If you asked me to think of similar time periods, I’d say 1987 in the U.S., I’m not saying we are going to have a crash.  It was a time when you had a budget deficit and you [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 13, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,789 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

June 8, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal - Rudyard Kipling It was Kipling’s poem. A reflection.  A smile. And yes, a tear. It was my mom whispering. If I could share some advice to the young CFA, an advisor, my client, my friend, my kids and again to myself… that poem. So much in that poem. This [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 6, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,769 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

June 1, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “… [T]he trigger for a crisis could be anything if the system as a whole is unstable. Moreover, the size of the trigger event need not bear any relation to the systemic outcome. The lesson is that policymakers should be focused less on identifying [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 30, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,702 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

May 25, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “If I were trying to create a deflationary bust, I would do exact exactly what the world’s central bankers have been doing the last six years. I shudder to think that the malinvestment that occurred over this period. Corporate debt has soared, but most of it has [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 23, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,713 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

May 18, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal "The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates… If interest rates are destined to be at low levels, it makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money. The bogey is always what government bonds yield." - Warren Buffett [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 16, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,723 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

May 11, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “At a time when the unemployment rate is well below full employment and inflation is accelerating, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is already on a course to tighten policy in order to cool the economy. Fiscal stimulus has only served to elevate concerns about economic [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 9, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,694 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

May 4, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal "Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction." "Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names." "Bull markets are more fun than bear markets." - Bob Farrell (Rules #2, [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 2, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,650 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

April 27, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “What we anticipate seldom occurs; what we least expect generally happens." Benjamin Disraeli We’ve been talking about a 3% yield on the 10-year Treasury as a line in the sand.  It may well be.  The important technical number is 3.07%.  A break higher and 4% is [...]Read More >