July 6, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “The major signs that would herald the beginning of the next recession are not yet in place. Unemployment is low and likely to decline further; wages are rising, but not sharply; the Federal Reserve is tightening, but real interest rates are zero; inflation is [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 5, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,713 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

June 29, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Here we are doing something that almost seems like a suicide mission… increasing the size of the deficit while we’re raising interest rates.” – Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital I’d add to that quote by saying that the administration is doing everything [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 27, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,717 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

June 22, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “The bottom line is that the wisdom of investing passively depends, ironically, on some people investing actively. When active investing is dismissed totally and all active efforts cease, passive investing will become imprudent and opportunities for superior [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 20, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,771 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

June 15, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “So I think you’ll see rates go up and stocks go up in tandem at the end of the year.” “If you asked me to think of similar time periods, I’d say 1987 in the U.S., I’m not saying we are going to have a crash.  It was a time when you had a budget deficit and you [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 13, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,789 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

June 8, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal - Rudyard Kipling It was Kipling’s poem. A reflection.  A smile. And yes, a tear. It was my mom whispering. If I could share some advice to the young CFA, an advisor, my client, my friend, my kids and again to myself… that poem. So much in that poem. This [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 6, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,769 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

June 1, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “… [T]he trigger for a crisis could be anything if the system as a whole is unstable. Moreover, the size of the trigger event need not bear any relation to the systemic outcome. The lesson is that policymakers should be focused less on identifying [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 30, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,702 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

May 25, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “If I were trying to create a deflationary bust, I would do exact exactly what the world’s central bankers have been doing the last six years. I shudder to think that the malinvestment that occurred over this period. Corporate debt has soared, but most of it has [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 23, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,713 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

May 18, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal "The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates… If interest rates are destined to be at low levels, it makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money. The bogey is always what government bonds yield." - Warren Buffett [...]Read More >