May 11, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “At a time when the unemployment rate is well below full employment and inflation is accelerating, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is already on a course to tighten policy in order to cool the economy. Fiscal stimulus has only served to elevate concerns about economic [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 9, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,694 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

May 4, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal "Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction." "Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names." "Bull markets are more fun than bear markets." - Bob Farrell (Rules #2, [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 2, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,650 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

April 27, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “What we anticipate seldom occurs; what we least expect generally happens." Benjamin Disraeli We’ve been talking about a 3% yield on the 10-year Treasury as a line in the sand.  It may well be.  The important technical number is 3.07%.  A break higher and 4% is [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 25, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,634 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

April 20, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “A Minsky moment is a sudden major collapse of asset values, which is part of the credit cycle or business cycle. Such moments occur because long periods of prosperity and increasing value of investments lead to increasing speculation using borrowed [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 17, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,710 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

April 13, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “… I think Cohn resigning, was basically (telling us) that trade protectionists have taken over the economic thought process at the White House.  And I think that's really disturbing.” - David Rosenberg China’s President Xi Jinping, in a speech this week, [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 11, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,652 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

April 6, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “The deflationary period we’ve been in has come to an end.” – Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & CEO, Gavekal Research China and Trump escalated the Trade War fist fight this week and the markets are having trouble digesting the dire news.  Is Trump [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 4, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,580 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

March 29, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “I’m bullish on commodities because we are late cycle…  You can argue how late we are in the cycle but we are late cycle. The bond bulls will argue there is more room to run, but nobody is going to say we are in the first inning or the third inning of an [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 28, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,612 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

March 23, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “There are two bubbles: We have a stock market bubble and we have a bond market bubble… What’s behind the bubble?  Well, the fact is that essentially we’re beginning to run an ever-larger government deficit. As a share of GDP debt has been rising very [...]Read More >