January 12, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "The art of investment is the discipline of inaction in the absence of a good opportunity, but aggressive action when one is identified." ­­– Li Lu Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data came in just above consensus estimates earlier this [...]Read More >

  January 5, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "Another massive beat on the latest US labor-market data, with wages actually increasing to 4.1% year over year from 4% in November. The market reaction is as you'd expect - yields higher, with fewer rate cuts being priced in for 2024." ­­– [...]Read More >

  December 29, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Write it on your heart that every day is the best day of the year.” ­­– Ralph Waldo Emerson In a tribute to the era of big bands, big egos, and even bigger hair, "Rock of Ages" is a Broadway musical set to the backdrop of classic rock [...]Read More >

  December 22, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "The four most expensive words in the English language are "this time it’s different.” ­­– Sir John Templeton Last week, we looked at the Fed, inflation, recessions, and stock market valuations. If you didn’t get a chance to read it, I [...]Read More >

  December 15, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "So it will be a period that differs completely from what we have lived through, what everybody who is active in the markets today has ever experienced. It's completely different. And I just want to tell people to be prepared for a change in [...]Read More >

  December 8, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Take a look at the prevailing view before every major inflection point, and it has always been wrong." -Felix Zulauf, Founder and CEO of Zulauf Consulting If you were a reader of Barron's before 2017, you know Felix Zulauf’s work. For 30 [...]Read More >

  December 1, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Take a look at the prevailing view before every major inflection point, and it has always been wrong." -Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, speaking with Andrew Ross Sorkin at the November 2023 DealBook Conference December 1. Hard to believe. Time [...]Read More >

  November 17, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "U.S. reaching a point where our debt problem gets even worse." – Ray Dalio, Source CNBC Kick the can was a fun game to play when we were kids. A Coke can was placed in an open space and was guarded. This person would cover their eyes and [...]Read More >

  November 3, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Only a few market events in an investor’s career really matter, and among the most important of all are superbubbles. These superbubbles are events unlike any others: while there are only a few in history for investors to study, they have clear [...]Read More >

  October 27, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "We shall not cease from exploration, and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time. " – T.S. Elliot In a conversation with a client this week, he shared the above quote by T.S. [...]Read More >

  October 20, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "The world's most crucial benchmark market is on an unpredictable journey with an uncertain destination." – Mohamed El-Erian is President of Queens’ College, Cambridge University, an advisor to Allianz and Gramercy, and a best-selling author. [...]Read More >

  October 13, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "To push the point home, I want to make clear that I believe that we are in that brief part of the Big Cycle when the conflicts are heating up, and the leading powers still have the ability to choose between crossing that line into brutal war or [...]Read More >

  October 6, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Peace begins with a smile." ­­– Mother Teresa I received a lot of feedback from last week's OMR letter. I appreciate the dialogue, especially when our views differ. When attending a conference or listening to a round table discussion on a [...]Read More >

  September 29, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Interest rates are the heart, the soul, and the life of the free market system. They ARE the cost of money. When costs go up, earnings go down. Real incomes go down. We are in a different investment environment than anything investors have [...]Read More >

  September 22, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time." - Thomas A. Edison The days are growing shorter. Tomorrow marks the official start of fall. For me, it began last evening, [...]Read More >