February 16, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "Sustainable bull markets don’t start with a Shiller P/E of 33 and full employment." ­­– Jeremy Grantham, GMO Several observations on the current technical picture of the US stock and bond markets: overvalued, overbought, and over [...]Read More >

  February 9, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "Based on dozens of measures that include valuations, internals, overextension syndromes, and numerous technical, fundamental, and cyclical gauges we’ve developed over time, we estimate that current market conditions now ‘cluster’ among the [...]Read More >

  February 2, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "Adventure is the invitation to common people to become uncommon."  "There are only four things you can do on skis: Turn right, turn left, go straight, or sell them." ­­– Warren Miller The last couple of weeks, we've been looking into the [...]Read More >

  January 26, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "I hope there are days when your coffee tastes like magic, your playlist makes you dance, strangers make you smile, and the night sky touches your soul. I hope you fall in love with being alive again." ­­– Brooke Hampton I really like the [...]Read More >

  January 19, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "I think $700 billion could default… The lenders are going to have to do things with them. They’re going to be selling. It’s going to be a generational change in real estate coming, end of 2024 and all of 2025. We will be talking about real [...]Read More >

  January 12, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "The art of investment is the discipline of inaction in the absence of a good opportunity, but aggressive action when one is identified." ­­– Li Lu Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data came in just above consensus estimates earlier this [...]Read More >

  January 5, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "Another massive beat on the latest US labor-market data, with wages actually increasing to 4.1% year over year from 4% in November. The market reaction is as you'd expect - yields higher, with fewer rate cuts being priced in for 2024." ­­– [...]Read More >

  December 29, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Write it on your heart that every day is the best day of the year.” ­­– Ralph Waldo Emerson In a tribute to the era of big bands, big egos, and even bigger hair, "Rock of Ages" is a Broadway musical set to the backdrop of classic rock [...]Read More >

  December 22, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "The four most expensive words in the English language are "this time it’s different.” ­­– Sir John Templeton Last week, we looked at the Fed, inflation, recessions, and stock market valuations. If you didn’t get a chance to read it, I [...]Read More >

  December 15, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "So it will be a period that differs completely from what we have lived through, what everybody who is active in the markets today has ever experienced. It's completely different. And I just want to tell people to be prepared for a change in [...]Read More >

  December 8, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Take a look at the prevailing view before every major inflection point, and it has always been wrong." -Felix Zulauf, Founder and CEO of Zulauf Consulting If you were a reader of Barron's before 2017, you know Felix Zulauf’s work. For 30 [...]Read More >

  December 1, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Take a look at the prevailing view before every major inflection point, and it has always been wrong." -Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, speaking with Andrew Ross Sorkin at the November 2023 DealBook Conference December 1. Hard to believe. Time [...]Read More >

  November 17, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "U.S. reaching a point where our debt problem gets even worse." – Ray Dalio, Source CNBC Kick the can was a fun game to play when we were kids. A Coke can was placed in an open space and was guarded. This person would cover their eyes and [...]Read More >

  November 3, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Only a few market events in an investor’s career really matter, and among the most important of all are superbubbles. These superbubbles are events unlike any others: while there are only a few in history for investors to study, they have clear [...]Read More >

  October 27, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "We shall not cease from exploration, and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time. " – T.S. Elliot In a conversation with a client this week, he shared the above quote by T.S. [...]Read More >