March 23, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “There are two bubbles: We have a stock market bubble and we have a bond market bubble… What’s behind the bubble?  Well, the fact is that essentially we’re beginning to run an ever-larger government deficit. As a share of GDP debt has been rising very [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 21, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,714.99 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

March 16, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “A period of stability induces behavioral responses that erode margins of safety, reduce liquidity, raise cash flow commitments relative to income and profits, and raise the price of risky relative to safe assets – all combining to weaken the ability of the [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 14, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,750 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

March 9, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Invest in things that have never happened before, hedge for regression to the mean and plan for the unimaginable.”  ― John Burbank, Passport Capital Mauldin Economics SIC 2018 “When the Fed moves in one direction they are ultimately laying the seeds for [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 8, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,732 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

March 2, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal   “The greatest mistake of the individual investor is to think that a market that did well is a good market rather than a more expensive market.” - Ray Dalio  “Volatility is an instrument of truth, and the more you deny the truth, the more the truth will [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal February 28, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,738 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

February 23, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Remember teamwork begins by building trust. And the only way to do that is to overcome our need for invulnerability.”  ― Patrick Lencioni The Five Dysfunctions of a Team: A Leadership Fable I know I frustrate my team more often than I care to admit.  My [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal February 21, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,716 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

February 16, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “Volatility fires almost always begin in the debt markets… Volatility is the brother of credit… and volatility regime shifts are driven by the credit cycle.” “When times are good and credit is easy, a company can rely on the extension of cheap debt to [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal February 14, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2,677 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

February 9, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “We are replaying an age-old storyline of financial bubbles that has been played many times before…” “This market’s current temperament feels so much like either Japan in 1989 or the U.S. in 1999. And the events that have transpired so far this January make [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal February 7, 2018 S&P 500 Index -- 2698 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

February 2, 2018 By Steve Blumenthal “An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it." - Mahatma Gandhi Once a month I like review my recession watch indicators.  Why?  In recessions bad stuff happens.  Excesses in the [...]Read More >