December 8, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal I met Philippa Dunne, co-editor of The Liscio Report, at the Camp Kotok fishing trip last August.  She dials into state tax receipts and has many deep contacts.  What I like is how she tracks the data on the lookout for recession risks.  I found the most recent [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal December 6, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,627 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

December 1, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… Focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… Most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.” [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal November 29, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,627 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

November 24, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.” - Benjamin Graham Happy Thanksgiving to you and your wonderful family.  Today’s post is holiday short because by the time it hits your in box I’ll hopefully be [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal November 22, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,570 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

November 17, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “If you are adding to your long-term holdings of stocks and other risk assets at current market valuations, you are likely to be betting -- knowingly or not -- on a combination of three drivers of future returns; or you are planning to sell your holdings to [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal November 15, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,570 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

November 10, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “We are going to have to address the debt.  And we are going to get more debt.” – Joe Kalish, Chief Global Macro Strategist, Ned Davis Research This week’s On My Radar is an investment outlook piece.  While current trend evidence remains bullish, you’ll see [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal November 8, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,594 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

November 3, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “There are essentially two forces influencing returns: growth and inflation. The task, then, is building a portfolio that can weather any scenario, regardless of what these factors are doing…  You should be building a diversified portfolio with assets that [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal November 1, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,577 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

October 27, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Collectively, the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan own one-third of the global bond market. “ – Mary Ellen Stanek, CFA Managing Director and Director of Asset Management, Robert W. Baird & Co., Chief Investment Officer, Baird [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal October 25, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,569 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

October 20, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “You have to bet against the consensus and be right to be successful in the markets.” – Ray Dalio, Founder, Bridgewater Associates, LP It remains a decidedly risk-on environment.  Interest rates are higher, the dollar is higher and the stock market is higher. [...]Read More >