June 30, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Change of a long-term trend is usually gradual enough that it is obscured by the noise caused by short-term volatility.  By the time secular trends are even acknowledged by the majority they are generally obvious and mature.  In the early stages of a new secular [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 28, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,419 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

June 23, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Investors need risk management in bear markets, not in bull markets.” “We are in the business of making mistakes.  The only difference between the winners and the losers is that the losers make big mistakes and the winners make small mistakes.” “There are a [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 21, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,437 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

June 16, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Make new friends but keep the old, one is silver and the other is gold.” – Author Unknown The words above were etched on a wooden plaque that hung in my family’s kitchen.  Mom was sending us a message and she’d point us to those words anytime we were quick to [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 14, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,435 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

June 9, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Your job as investors is to feel sick to your stomach. Do not invest when you are excited and everything is great… go shopping when things go on sale.” “We will have a recession sometime within the next 12 months.  It is not going to be different this time.” – [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 7, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,429 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

June 2, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The initial conditions or the starting point conditions, mean to me that a small degree of monetary restraint has a very quick and strong impact on economic activity.”  - Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D., Hoisington Investment Management 2017 Strategic Investment [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 31, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,413 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

May 26, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal "If you make an investment and feel good about it, you'll lose money. If you make an investment and you don’t feel good about it, you’ll make money. Go shopping when things are on sale." –  Mark Yusko, Morgan Creek Capital Management 2017 Strategic Investment [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 24, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,398 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

May 19, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Over the long term, what raises living standards is productivity—the amount that is produced per person—which increases from coming up with new ideas and implementing ways of producing efficiently.  Productivity evolves slowly, so it doesn’t drive big economic [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 17, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,400 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

May 12, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” – Benjamin Graham When Ronald Reagan entered office in 1981, forward return expectations were a high 18.91% (see chart below: green line, left-hand side).  Equally [...]Read More >