April 21, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist. They assume that something that was a good investment in the recent past is still a good investment. Typically, high past returns simply imply that an [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 19, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2.342 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

April 14, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “…the Fed has typically tightened too much and/or for too long. From this long history, a well-established pattern is identifiable. The economic growth rate along with inflation receded. A financial crisis was more likely than not.” – Van R. Hoisington and [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 12, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,346 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

April 7, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “To refer to a personal taste of mine, I’m going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the ‘Hallelujah Chorus’ in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it’s the same with [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 5, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,376 Before we jump into this week’s charts, call me crazy for I have no idea why “Ride Captain Ride” popped into my head, but it sure seems to sum up where we find ourselves today (at least for now): Seventy-three men sailed up From the [...]Read More >

March 31, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal I’m going to try to tie two related themes together today.  The first, and I have to admit I was surprised when I saw the research, is the incredible shrinking universe of stocks.  Think corporate share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions and fewer companies [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 29, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,358 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

March 24, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “First, if the bubble were to collapse on its own, would the effect on the economy be exceedingly large? Second, is it unlikely that the Fed could mitigate the consequences? Third, is monetary policy the best tool to use to deflate a house-price bubble? My [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 22, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,346 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

March 17, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Time is like a river that will take you forward into encounters with reality that will require you to make decisions. You can’t stop the movement down this river, and you can’t avoid the encounters. You can only approach these encounters in the best way [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 15, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,377 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

March 10, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “There have been 13 Fed rate hike cycles in the post-WWII era and 10 landed the economy in recession. Soft landings are rare and when they have occurred, they have come in the third year of the expansion, not the eighth.” - David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff + [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 8, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,368 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

March 3, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Big money is made in the stock market by being on the right side of the major moves. The idea is to get in harmony with the market. It's suicidal to fight trends. They have a higher probability of continuing than not.” Martin Zweig At the beginning of each [...]Read More >