May 12, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” – Benjamin Graham When Ronald Reagan entered office in 1981, forward return expectations were a high 18.91% (see chart below: green line, left-hand side).  Equally [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 10, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,398 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

May 5, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” – Sir John Templeton I presented at a recent advisor conference alongside a famous economist.  He told a story about an investment manager who told him, “You know… [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 3, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,388 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors demand [...]Read More >

April 28, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The hardest part in trying to limit losses is not necessarily timing the market, but imparting the wisdom of limiting losses upon your clients. To limit drawdowns advisors and their clients cannot fully embrace raging bull markets that are excessively [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 26, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2.394 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

April 21, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist. They assume that something that was a good investment in the recent past is still a good investment. Typically, high past returns simply imply that an [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 19, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2.342 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

April 14, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “…the Fed has typically tightened too much and/or for too long. From this long history, a well-established pattern is identifiable. The economic growth rate along with inflation receded. A financial crisis was more likely than not.” – Van R. Hoisington and [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 12, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,346 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

April 7, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “To refer to a personal taste of mine, I’m going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the ‘Hallelujah Chorus’ in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it’s the same with [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 5, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,376 Before we jump into this week’s charts, call me crazy for I have no idea why “Ride Captain Ride” popped into my head, but it sure seems to sum up where we find ourselves today (at least for now): Seventy-three men sailed up From the [...]Read More >

March 31, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal I’m going to try to tie two related themes together today.  The first, and I have to admit I was surprised when I saw the research, is the incredible shrinking universe of stocks.  Think corporate share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions and fewer companies [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 29, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,358 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

March 24, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “First, if the bubble were to collapse on its own, would the effect on the economy be exceedingly large? Second, is it unlikely that the Fed could mitigate the consequences? Third, is monetary policy the best tool to use to deflate a house-price bubble? My [...]Read More >