January 6, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Promise yourself to be so strong that nothing can disturb your peace of mind. Look at the sunny side of everything and make your optimism come true. Think only of the best, work only for the best, and expect only the best. Forget the mistakes of the past [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Don’t Fight the Trend or the Tape… A Golden Rule - 01-4-2017
By Steve Blumenthal January 4, 2017 S&P 500 Index -- 2,270 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Wishing You a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year! - 12-30-2016
December 30, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.” - Ben Bernanke (2008) I mentioned last week there would be no OMR this week. Well, against my wife Susan’s best advice (to take the week off), following is a short post I hope you find [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Happy New Year! Sentiment Extreme, Equity Trend Bullish, Fixed Income Bearish, HY Bullish and Gold Bearish - 12-28-2016
By Steve Blumenthal December 28, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,262 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: In 2017… Watch Europe, Watch China and Watch Japan; “Stay Wary, Alert and Very, Very Nimble” - 12-23-2016
December 23, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Stay wary, alert and very, very nimble.” – Art Cashin Managing Director, UBS Financial Services I read Art’s letter almost every day and, boy, do I enjoy his wit, his compassion and his brains. In the spirit of Christmas, his post this morning was [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Strong Dollar, Weak Gold, Equity Trend Up, Bond Trend Down, Sentiment Remains Far Too Optimistic - 12-21-2016
By Steve Blumenthal December 21, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,267 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar — Pensions and Interest Rates; It’s Not Your Father’s Bond Market - 12-16-2016
December 16, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.” - [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Summary of this Week’s Trade Signals by Asset Category - 12-14-2016
By Steve Blumenthal December 14, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,271 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Finito! For Bonds and Italian Banks - 12-9-2016
December 9, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “If you're not getting better, you're getting worse.” - Walter Bahr PSU Coach Walter Bahr (right) In June 1950, Walter Bahr, a 23-year-old junior high school physical education teacher from Philadelphia, led the United States soccer team to a 1-0 victory [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Investor Sentiment Too Many Bulls; Zweig Bond Model Sell; HY Buy; Equity Trend Evidence Bullish - 12-7-2016
By Steve Blumenthal December 7, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,212 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Italian Referendum; What it Means to You, Me and the Markets - 12-2-2016
December 2, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “There are three things we should all do every day: Number one is laugh (you should laugh every day), number two is think (you should spend some time in thought) and number three is you should have your emotions moved to tears (tears could be for [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — U.S. Equity Bull, Global Equity Bull, Fixed Income Bear; Sentiment Suggests Caution - 11-30-2016
By Steve Blumenthal November 30, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,207 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Bullish Signals for Stocks, Bearish Signals for Bonds and Turkeys… Happy Thanksgiving - 11-23-2016
By Steve Blumenthal November 23, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,198 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Secular Low in Yields is IN - 11-18-2016
November 18, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “To be clear, we are more non-ideological and practical/mechanical because to us economies and markets work like machines and our job is simply to understand how the levers will be moved and what outcome the moving of them is likely to produce.” — Ray [...]Read More >
Trade Signals — Trend Evidence: Equity Market Bull, Bond Market Bear - 11-16-2016
By Steve Blumenthal November 16, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,180 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators. Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >
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