September 16, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal Human beings do something really well.  They buy what they wish they would have bought and they are spectacular at it. The last time we had a record amount of money move to passive was in March 2000.  Back then only 10% of the market was passive and today it [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal September 14, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,127 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  It is my weekly risk management dashboard, designed to keep me better in sync with the major technical [...]Read More >

September 9, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal I and others however, have for several years now, suggested that the primary problem lies with zero/negative interest rates; that not only do they fail to provide an "easing cushion" should recession come knocking at the door, but they [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal September 7, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,184 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  It is my weekly risk management dashboard, designed to keep me better in sync with the major technical [...]Read More >

September 2, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal Woody Allen closes “Annie Hall” with a joke: This guy goes to a psychiatrist and says, ‘Doc, my brother's crazy; he thinks he's a chicken.’  And the doctor says, ‘Well, why don't you turn him in?’  The guy says, ‘I would, but I need the eggs.’ That pretty [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 31, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2165 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  It is my weekly risk management dashboard, designed to keep me better in sync with the major technical trends.  [...]Read More >

August 26, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “We live at a time where the unthinkable has become common.” — B. Scott Minerd, Managing Partner, Guggenheim Partners Do you remember the story book The Little Engine That Could?  The best known version of the story was written by "Watty Piper," the pen name [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 24, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2174 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  It is my weekly risk management dashboard, designed to keep me better in sync with the major technical [...]Read More >

August 19, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “In the realm of economics, no government can play god.” -- José Niño, Analyst, Acton Circle of Chile I came across today’s intro quote this week while sitting in my beach chair facing the Atlantic Ocean.  The title seems apropos to the world we find ourselves [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 17, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2174 “Because for any given level of return, if you diversify, you can generate that return with a lower risk; or for any given level of risk, if you diversify, you can generate a higher return.  So it’s a free lunch.  Diversification makes [...]Read More >

August 12, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “We’ve been bulls on 30-year Treasury bonds since 1981 when we stated, “We’re entering the bond rally of a lifetime.” “Their yields back then were 15.2%, but our forecast called for huge declines in inflation and, with it, a gigantic fall in bond yields to our [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 10, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2156 Technically, the S&P 500 Index looks strong.  The price trend, as measured by the 13/34-Week MA (posted below) turned positive in late March 2016.  My favorite “weight of evidence indicator,” the CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 27, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2166 The “Don’t Fight the Fed or the Tape” indicator is showing the strongest reading in some time (+2).  The reading has been +1 for a number of months.  Note in the following chart that such readings have happened only 5.74% of the time [...]Read More >

July 22, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “We’ve had a lot of QE and we are not sure if it works.” - Former Dallas Fed President, Richard Fisher (Source) One of the best reads for me this week came from the creative pen of Danielle DiMartino Booth.  She was an analyst at the Dallas Federal Reserve for [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal July 20, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2167 I like to think of this weekly process as a risk management dashboard.  Of note this week is the extreme level of investor optimism.  Generally, such readings are short-term bearish for equities and suggest a pause or correction within [...]Read More >