May 20, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Let yourself be silently drawn by the strange pull of what you really love.  It will not lead you astray.” -Rumi Sometimes it is good to sit back, reflect, recharge and then, once again, drive forward.  I pulled open a drawer and found, tucked at the bottom [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 18, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2041 Release of the Fed minutes showed that members would support a rate hike if economic data improved.  The market immediately sold off.  Here are the change in odds as tracked by CME: June: 34 percent chance, up from 19 percent prior [...]Read More >

May 13, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Invest in good companies, don’t use leverage, invest in liquid investments, don’t do private deals and light a candle and pray for a positive outcome.” -Leon Cooperman, Omega “Debt drains away vital resources from economic growth. Fighting a debt crisis with [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 11, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2069 I’m in Las Vegas this week at the SALT Alternatives Investment Conference.  I’ll share some high level notes in Friday’s “On My Radar.” The market remains range-bound.  Sentiment has improved, meaning investor sentiment is nearing the [...]Read More >

May 6, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal "The Fed has borrowed from future consumption more than ever before. It is the least data dependent Fed in history. This is the longest deviation from historical norms in terms of Fed dovishness than I have ever seen in my career... This kind of myopia causes [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 4, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2051 Before you take the quick dive into this week’s Trade Signals, here is an interesting fun fact courtesy of Bespoke Investment Research. “Over the last five years, Mondays have been by far the worst days for the S&P 500 with an [...]Read More >

April 29, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal The road is long With many a winding turn That leads us to who knows where Who knows when But I'm strong Strong enough to carry him He ain't heavy, he's my brother So on we go His welfare is of my concern No burden is he to bear We'll get there For I [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 27, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2090 From the Fed this afternoon: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed.  Growth [...]Read More >

April 22, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “In the time it takes to raise a child and pack her off to college, the world order that existed in the early 1990s has disappeared.  Some three billion people who once lived in sleepy or sclerotic statist economies are now part of the global economy.  Many [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 20, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2103 The supply/demand indicator turned bullish this week.  The process looks at a smoothed total volume of declining issues versus a smoothed total volume of advancing issues, using a broad market equity index.  This indication is another [...]Read More >

April 15, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Seemingly logical, but as I’ve pointed out in recent years – not working very well because zero and negative interest rates break down capitalistic business models related to banking, insurance, pension funds, and ultimately small savers.  They can’t earn [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 13, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2077 Notable this week is the 13-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) line crossed above the longer-term 34-week EMA line.  Trend followers smooth the historical price performance and, when a shorter-term trend line crossed above or below, [...]Read More >

April 8, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “The Fed may succeed in stretching this cycle until 2017.  But sooner or later it will have to grasp the nettle, and then we will discover how much monetary pain can be taken by a dollarized global economy with post-QE pathologies and total debt ratios some 36pc [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 6, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2062 I thought I’d share an idea with you today: An advisor client asked me how I use the CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap Momentum Index within a total portfolio.  My two cents is I like to have a systematic way, absent emotion, to raise [...]Read More >

April 1, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal  “Now these monetary institutions are expected to continue producing miracles. But their ability to repeatedly pull new rabbits out of their policy hats has been stretched to an increasingly unsustainable degree.” -Mohamed A. El-Erian, The Only Game in Town I [...]Read More >