By Steve Blumenthal April 20, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2103 The supply/demand indicator turned bullish this week.  The process looks at a smoothed total volume of declining issues versus a smoothed total volume of advancing issues, using a broad market equity index.  This indication is another [...]Read More >

April 15, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Seemingly logical, but as I’ve pointed out in recent years – not working very well because zero and negative interest rates break down capitalistic business models related to banking, insurance, pension funds, and ultimately small savers.  They can’t earn [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 13, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2077 Notable this week is the 13-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) line crossed above the longer-term 34-week EMA line.  Trend followers smooth the historical price performance and, when a shorter-term trend line crossed above or below, [...]Read More >

April 8, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “The Fed may succeed in stretching this cycle until 2017.  But sooner or later it will have to grasp the nettle, and then we will discover how much monetary pain can be taken by a dollarized global economy with post-QE pathologies and total debt ratios some 36pc [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 6, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2062 I thought I’d share an idea with you today: An advisor client asked me how I use the CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap Momentum Index within a total portfolio.  My two cents is I like to have a systematic way, absent emotion, to raise [...]Read More >

April 1, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal  “Now these monetary institutions are expected to continue producing miracles. But their ability to repeatedly pull new rabbits out of their policy hats has been stretched to an increasingly unsustainable degree.” -Mohamed A. El-Erian, The Only Game in Town I [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 30, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2055 Investor sentiment remains neutral (the rally from extreme pessimism is impressive).  The best buying opportunities tend to come at points of extreme pessimism and the best hedging opportunities tend to come at points of extreme [...]Read More >

March 25, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Corporate sector metrics have been disappointing of late... Companies are scaling back expenditures of all kinds (capital expenditures, hiring, and inventory-builds, for example), as their top-line revenues and earnings decelerate.  Though first-quarter numbers [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 23, 2016 S&P 500® Index 2036 Recall the extreme level of investor pessimism of just six weeks ago.  In fact, extreme negative investor sentiment readings were the norm last November through February.  I’ve been suggesting since December that extreme pessimism was [...]Read More >

March 18, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “So what do we do? Anything. Something. So long as we just don’t sit there. If we screw it up, start over. Try something else. If we wait until we’ve satisfied all the uncertainties, it may be too late.” - Lee Iacocca “This is the persistent tendency of men to [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 16, 2016 S&P 500® Index 2018 The long-term models, CMG Ned Davis Research (NDR) Large Cap Momentum Index and 13/34-Week EMA, inform our long-term market outlook.  The primary trend remains negative.  The long-term signals guide our cautious view on the market.  [...]Read More >

March 11, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal Last week’s mention of the great Art Cashin sent a number of emails my way.  The one that touched me most was from Richard who worked for Paine Webber from 1974 to 1987.  Back then every broker had a small speaker on his or her desk.  We in the industry know it [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 9, 2016 S&P 500® Index 1985 The extreme level of investor pessimism is abating.  The best market rallies begin at points of extreme pessimism.  Such pessimism is typically short-term bullish for the market.  However, the overall trend for equities remains down [...]Read More >

March 4, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “The best state pension plan is only 42% funded.” I was in Florida this week attending the 32nd Annual Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) Risk Management Conference.  Attendees were mostly asset managers and larger pension and endowment managers.  Several [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 2, 2016 Now what? Previously I suggested several rally targets.  The first was 1900.  The second 1950. The third 2000.  The S&P 500® is nearing that test.  Overall, the cyclical trend picture has not changed.  The weight of technical evidence suggests a negative [...]Read More >