S&P 500 Index 1884 By Steve Blumenthal February 3, 2016 Our primary equity market indicator, the CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap Momentum/Breadth Index remains in a “SELL.”  CMG HY is back in a “SELL.”  The market is not on solid footing. One of the indicators I like to watch and post [...]Read More >

Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2015 fourth quarter and year end net performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter.  In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG Managed Blends and the CMG [...]Read More >

January 29, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen – who are more like teenagers at a prom night. They are spiking the punch bowl and handing out free drinks and hoping to get lucky at the end of the night.” James Montier, GMO “Understanding the forces of Supply and Demand in [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1898 By Steve Blumenthal January 27, 2015 Pessimism remains extreme with the Weekly Sentiment at the lowest (most bearish) reading since 2011.  That supports a short-term bullish move.  I remain in the “hedge or sell the rallies” camp. Our Zweig Bond model moved to a sell [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1820 By Steve Blumenthal January 20, 2015 Our CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap Momentum Index remains the dominant signal, in my view (chart below).  It triggered a “Neutral” signal on June 30, 2015 suggesting a move to Treasury bills or “BIL” (cash) or hedge.  Additionally, [...]Read More >

January 15, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal The speed at which stocks have dropped 10% (defined as a correction) two times in a short period of time has happened just three times in the last 100 years.  1927, 2000 and 2008. This from Art Cashin yesterday, “Jason Goepfert, the outstanding pilot of [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1940 By Steve Blumenthal January 13, 2015 Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Equity Trade Signals: CMG NDR Large Cap Momentum Index:  Sell Signal – Bearish for Equities Long-term Trend (13/34-Week EMA) on the S&P 500 Index:  Sell Signal — Bearish for [...]Read More >

January 8, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal China marked its currency lower once again yesterday.  That makes eight days in a row they lowered the yuan.  Last August, they devalued the yuan and that sent global equity markets into a dive.  As Yogi Berra would say, “It’s déjà vu all over again.” For [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1981 By Steve Blumenthal January 6, 2015 The S&P 500 index is down 90 points since last week’s post.  An ominous start to the New Year.  My favorite weight-of-evidence chart that looks at both price momentum and market breadth, our CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap [...]Read More >

December 31, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal Where do we stand now, economically? “Well, we are right back at it: trying to stimulate growth through easy money. It hasn’t worked, but it’s the only tool the Fed’s got. Meanwhile, the Fed’s policies widen the wealth gap, which feeds political extremism, [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2071 By Steve Blumenthal December 30, 2015 Investor pessimism remains extreme.  This is short-term bullish for the U.S. equity market.  Following are the most recent Trade Signals. Wishing you a Happy New Year! Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Equity Trade [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2057 By Steve Blumenthal December 23, 2015 To me, Ben Garrison’s cartoon entitled “Everything Is Awesome!!” pretty much captures the state of the current environment in which we find ourselves. Just the data please!  I was a bit shocked, as you may be as well, to see [...]Read More >

December 18, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “There is a doctrine in finance called the dividend discount model. It says that the price of a common stock is the present value of its future cash flows discounted by a suitable rate of interest. Now what would happen to the calculation of the value of that [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal December 14, 2015  I’ve been warning for some time of a coming default wave in the high-yield market and the importance of staying tactical (flexible).  It appears to be nearing.  Prices on high-yield securities hit a six-year low on Friday.  The decline in oil has caused many [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2047 By Steve Blumenthal December 16, 2015 Today is Fed day.  I’m posting this piece just prior to their interest rate decision.  My fingers are crossed for functional Wi-Fi – I’m traveling home from business in Salt Lake City.  And a few days on the snow. High-yield [...]Read More >