By Steve Blumenthal March 2, 2016 Now what? Previously I suggested several rally targets.  The first was 1900.  The second 1950. The third 2000.  The S&P 500® is nearing that test.  Overall, the cyclical trend picture has not changed.  The weight of technical evidence suggests a negative [...]Read More >

February 26, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Time to put 25% to 30% of your wealth in cash.” – Mohammed El-Erian "If you go to an investment adviser, they'll tell you cash is wasted," says El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz.  ‘I don't think so.’  ‘You will have many opportunities to buy [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1908 By Steve Blumenthal February 24, 2016 I mentioned in last week’s post that the S&P 500® Index is nearing its February high at 1947.20.  Extreme investor pessimism supported a short-term rally and both the February high at 1947.20 and the 50-day moving average line [...]Read More >

February 19, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “If zero or negative interest rates actually fixed what's broken in the economy, we'd all be living in Paradise after seven years of zero interest rates.” - Charles Hugh Smith (blog) I am up early, in my favorite chair and loving the coffee that Susan just [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1922 By Steve Blumenthal February 17, 2016 The trend remains negative for equities and is neutral for high yield.  Investor sentiment remains extremely pessimistic.  Such extreme readings are generally bullish for equites.  We are finally seeing the oversold rally. The [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1863 By Steve Blumenthal February 10, 2016 The trend remains negative for equities and high yield.  We continue to see relative strength leadership in utilities, fixed income, tax-free fixed income and gold.  Investor sentiment remains extremely pessimistic.  This supports a [...]Read More >

February 5, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Clearly, QE has not worked. We have not had one year of 3%+ growth since the Great Recession and are barely averaging 2%.  Yes, if your measure is the stock market and other financial assets that have inflated, then QE has worked quite well.  But the boost QE [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1884 By Steve Blumenthal February 3, 2016 Our primary equity market indicator, the CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap Momentum/Breadth Index remains in a “SELL.”  CMG HY is back in a “SELL.”  The market is not on solid footing. One of the indicators I like to watch and post [...]Read More >

Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2015 fourth quarter and year end net performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter.  In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG Managed Blends and the CMG [...]Read More >

January 29, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen – who are more like teenagers at a prom night. They are spiking the punch bowl and handing out free drinks and hoping to get lucky at the end of the night.” James Montier, GMO “Understanding the forces of Supply and Demand in [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1898 By Steve Blumenthal January 27, 2015 Pessimism remains extreme with the Weekly Sentiment at the lowest (most bearish) reading since 2011.  That supports a short-term bullish move.  I remain in the “hedge or sell the rallies” camp. Our Zweig Bond model moved to a sell [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1820 By Steve Blumenthal January 20, 2015 Our CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap Momentum Index remains the dominant signal, in my view (chart below).  It triggered a “Neutral” signal on June 30, 2015 suggesting a move to Treasury bills or “BIL” (cash) or hedge.  Additionally, [...]Read More >

January 15, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal The speed at which stocks have dropped 10% (defined as a correction) two times in a short period of time has happened just three times in the last 100 years.  1927, 2000 and 2008. This from Art Cashin yesterday, “Jason Goepfert, the outstanding pilot of [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1940 By Steve Blumenthal January 13, 2015 Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Equity Trade Signals: CMG NDR Large Cap Momentum Index:  Sell Signal – Bearish for Equities Long-term Trend (13/34-Week EMA) on the S&P 500 Index:  Sell Signal — Bearish for [...]Read More >

January 8, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal China marked its currency lower once again yesterday.  That makes eight days in a row they lowered the yuan.  Last August, they devalued the yuan and that sent global equity markets into a dive.  As Yogi Berra would say, “It’s déjà vu all over again.” For [...]Read More >