September 11, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Of the nine market declines associated with recessions that started with valuations above the mean, the average decline was -42.8%. Of the four declines that began with valuations below the mean, the average was -19.9%” – Doug Short I don’t believe a [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1956 By Steve Blumenthal September 9, 2015 I remain in the “sell the rallies” mind set.  Big MO is very close to triggering a sell.  Most all other indicators are negative on equities. The Zweig Bond Model is once again bullish on bonds. I’ll update you on the most recent [...]Read More >

9/3/2015 @ 12:13PM Steve Blumenthal, Contributor CMG Capital Management Group CEO writes about strategies for this new volatile market in his latest Forbes article titled Welcome To The Opening Round Of The New Bear Market. Some excerpts from the piece: “My view: it’s time to “sell the [...]Read More >

September 4, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal At the National People’s Congress in Beijing in March 2015, China’s Premier Li Keqiang announced a growth target of 7 percent, acknowledging that “deep-seated problems in the country’s economy are becoming more obvious.” Three months later and thousands [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1949 By Steve Blumenthal September 2, 2015 Since last week’s post the S&P 500 Index has rallied 77 points bounce off of last week’s Investor Sentiment Extreme Pessimism low.  A gain of 4.11%.  Following are several charts that look at the 2011 correction and today.  [...]Read More >

August 28, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal Harry Truman, Doris Day, Red China, Johnnie Ray South Pacific, Walter Winchell, Joe DiMaggio Joe McCarthy, Richard Nixon, Studebaker, television North Korea, South Korea, Marilyn Monroe… We didn't start the fire It was always burning Since the world's been [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1872 By Steve Blumenthal August 26, 2015 Investor pessimism has reached extreme levels – expect a bounce.  That’s the positive news.  If you are not hedging your equity exposure, then it may make sense to raise cash on the coming rally.  Use rallies to raise cash. Find a [...]Read More >

August 21, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” - Winston Churchill Perhaps it is my early business roots that set my orientation towards a trading approach to the markets. Some of our clients take [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2089 By Steve Blumenthal August 19, 2015 I’m moving up the level of risk due to several factors: One is a change in signal on volume demand vs. volume supply.  Selling pressure is dominating buying demand, which is a concern in a period of low liquidity. Valuations [...]Read More >

August 19, 2015, 10:26 A.M. ET By Amey Stone CMG Capital Management Group CEO Steve Blumenthal talks to Barron’s “Income Investing” columnist Amey Stone about high yield bonds. Excerpt below from the Barron’s story Pain in High Yield Worsens: "Steve Blumenthal, CEO of CMG Capital Management [...]Read More >

August 14, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Something is deeply wrong if an economy is not growing, because it means these natural processes are impeded. That is why around the world, since the Dark Ages, lack of growth has been a signal of political oppression or instability. Absent such sickness, [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2063 By Steve Blumenthal August 12, 2015 I believe China’s surprise Yuan devaluation keeps the Fed on hold.  Raising rates will further strengthen the dollar.  A stronger dollar may ultimately be our greatest market risk – triggering crisis in the $9 trillion EM U.S. [...]Read More >

August 7, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did do, so throw off the bowlines, sail away from safe harbor, catch the trade winds in your sails.  Explore, Dream, Discover." –Mark Twain A question [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2092 By Steve Blumenthal August 5, 2015 More buyers than sellers drives price higher.  One of the charts I post each week measures volume demand vs. volume supply.  The buy and sell signals are posted below.  A new buy signal was triggered on July 30, 2015.  This along [...]Read More >

July 31, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal   “Now look at them yo-yo's that's the way you do it You play the guitar on the M.T.V. That ain't workin' that's the way you do it Money for nothin' and your chicks for free.” Money For Nothing – Dire Straits   The Fed is sitting between a [...]Read More >