May 5, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "The five big forces that have driven and are driving just about everything: 1) the credit/debt/market/economic cycle, 2) the internal peace/conflict cycle that shapes the domestic order, 3) the external peace/conflict cycle that shapes the [...]Read More >

  April 28, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "It's always about the Fed. It's always been about the Fed. It will always be about the Fed. Don't fight the Fed." "It's liquidity that moves markets..." - Stan Druckenmiller US stocks rallied yesterday after a strong round of corporate [...]Read More >

  April 21, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Forget about it." - Donnie Brasco, (1997) Donnie Brasco is a 1997 crime drama directed by Mike Newell starring Johnny Depp and Al Pacino. The film is based on the true story of an FBI agent named Joe Pistone (played by Depp), who goes [...]Read More >

  April 14, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know, probably that would be going too far, but I do think we're much safer, and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes, and I don't believe it will be." - Janet Yellen on [...]Read More >

  April 7, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “If you took our top fifteen decisions out, we'd have a pretty average record. It wasn't hyperactivity, but a hell of a lot of patience. You stuck to your principles and when opportunities came along, you pounced on them with vigor." - Charlie [...]Read More >

  March 31, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “Quantitative easing ‘worked’ by flooding the economy with so much zero-interest base money that investors lost their minds, driving even long-term interest rates to record-low levels, and driving our most reliable stock market valuation measures [...]Read More >

  March 24, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “Swing your swing. Not some idea of a swing. Not a swing you saw on TV. Not that swing you wish you had. No, swing your swing. Capable of greatness. Prized only by you. Perfect in its imperfection. Swing your swing. I know, I did.” - Arnold [...]Read More >

  March 17, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “The last two years [are] one of the biggest policy mistakes in the 110-year history of the Fed, by staying so easy when everything was booming,” - Jeremy Siegel “My problem with the Fed, overall, is there’s too many academics in the mix,” said [...]Read More >

  March 10, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “It is not true that people stop pursuing dreams because they grow old, they grow old because they stop pursuing dreams.” – The Gabriel García Márquez (March 6, 1927 – April 17, 2014) This morning, February payrolls came in 85,000 jobs higher [...]Read More >

  March 3, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “If they stand behind you, defend them. If they stand next to you, respect them, If they stand against you, defeat them.” – The Wolf's Crede I attend several investment conferences every year, and the best one, hands down, is the conference [...]Read More >

  February 24, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “We find no instance in which a central [bank]–induced disinflation occurred without a recession. [. . .] Simulations of our baseline model suggest that the Fed will need to tighten policy significantly further to achieve its inflation [...]Read More >

Markets move in cycles, and cycles will always exist. Trade Signals provides a weekly snapshot of current stock, bond, currency, and gold market trends. Trade Signals is a summary of technical indicators to help you identify where we sit in short, intermediate, and long-term cycles. We track [...]Read More >

  February 17, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “I don’t think what we’re going through right now is just a normal cycle fluctuation. For over forty years we were in an environment with declining interest rates, and for the last thirteen years, we had this benign, accommodative environment. [...]Read More >

Trade Signals, by Steve Blumenthal February 15, 2023, S&P 500 Index --4,117 Markets move in cycles, and cycles will always exist. Trade Signals provides a weekly snapshot of current stock, bond, currency, and gold market trends. Trade Signals is a summary of technical indicators to help you [...]Read More >

  February 10, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “The Money-Credit-Debt-Markets-Economic Cycles: In my opinion the tightening that began in March 2022 ended the last paradigm in which central banks gave away money and credit essentially for free, which was great for the borrower-debtors. We [...]Read More >