4/3/2015 @ 7:40PM Steve Blumenthal, Contributor An outstanding investment opportunity in high-yield bonds is growing closer. Let’s take a look at what you can do to identify the opportunity and act on it. High-yield junk bonds can be an attractive asset class but, as the name implies, investing in [...]Read More >

April 4, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal  “Deals are getting worse and worse for the investor, and they have been powerless to stop it. The only winners are issuers and their underwriters." - Martin Fridson I circle back to the high yield bond market frequently because I believe it will signal a coming [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 1, 2014 Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Cyclical Equity Market Trend: The Primary Trend Remains Bullish for Stocks Volume Demand Continues to Better Volume Supply: Bullish for Stocks Weekly Investor Sentiment Indicator: NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll: [...]Read More >

March 27, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "When you are inspired by some great purpose, some extraordinary project, all of your thoughts break their bonds. Your mind transcends limitations, your consciousness expands in every direction, and you find yourself in a new, great, wonderful world." "When you [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2076 By Steve Blumenthal March 25, 2014 The Zweig Bond Model and our CMG Managed High Yield Bond Program have both switched back to “buy” signals. The overall equity market trend remains positive as measured by Big Mo (Momentum) and the 13/34- Week EMA. Sentiment is [...]Read More >

March 20, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "The secret to my success is that I buy when everyone else is selling and I sell when everyone else is buying." - Sir John Templeton There were several charts that caught my eye this week.  The first is a chart that tells us the likely annual return for the [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2101 By Steve Blumenthal March 18, 2014 A quick summary review of the charts provided below: The market’s trend evidence remains positive. Daily investor sentiment reached an extreme pessimism reading which is short-term bullish for stocks. The most recent correction may [...]Read More >

3/13/2015 @ 4:17PM Steve Blumenthal, Contributor We’ve gotten used to thinking of a zero interest rate as normal-—it’s far from normal.” -Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer Employment figures continue to surpass analyst estimates and the trend over the last six months has been strong. Last [...]Read More >

March 13, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "We've gotten used to thinking of a zero interest rate as normal—it's far from normal." Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer I wrote a piece in Forbes this week titled “Rate Hike Ahead, Bond Model Says Sell”.  The gist of the piece is about a tug of war between [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2044 By Steve Blumenthal March 11, 2014 While sentiment has improved as the equity market has sold off, it is not yet in the extreme pessimism zone to suggest more buying. Interesting to note this week, the Zweig Bond Model has moved to a SELL signal. This is following [...]Read More >

March 6, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Academics operate with an expression called recency. It basically means that we, as humans, assign greater relevance and importance to more recent events than we do to more distant ones. When equities delivered exorbitant returns during the great bull market of [...]Read More >

The Absolute Return Letter, March 2015 Tigers in Africa This month's Absolute Return Letter is about unrealistic expectations which is something we are all guilty of from time to time. We look at why it is unrealistic to expect equity returns to be in the double digit range over the next several [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2099 By Steve Blumenthal March 4, 2014 Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Cyclical Equity Market Trend: The Primary Trend Remains Bullish for Stocks Volume Demand Continues to Better Volume Supply: Bullish for Stocks Weekly Investor Sentiment Indicator: NDR [...]Read More >

February 27, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal This past week Germany sold five-year debt at a negative yield for the first time in history. Read, wash, rinse and repeat. A negative yield for the first time in history. The problem globally is unmanageable debt. An investor gets to pay Germany money for [...]Read More >

2/24/2015 @ 6:27PM Steve Blumenthal, Contributor What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play.” - Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator There has been a lot of debate on [...]Read More >