3/13/2015 @ 4:17PM Steve Blumenthal, Contributor We’ve gotten used to thinking of a zero interest rate as normal-—it’s far from normal.” -Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer Employment figures continue to surpass analyst estimates and the trend over the last six months has been strong. Last [...]Read More >

March 13, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "We've gotten used to thinking of a zero interest rate as normal—it's far from normal." Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer I wrote a piece in Forbes this week titled “Rate Hike Ahead, Bond Model Says Sell”.  The gist of the piece is about a tug of war between [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2044 By Steve Blumenthal March 11, 2014 While sentiment has improved as the equity market has sold off, it is not yet in the extreme pessimism zone to suggest more buying. Interesting to note this week, the Zweig Bond Model has moved to a SELL signal. This is following [...]Read More >

March 6, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Academics operate with an expression called recency. It basically means that we, as humans, assign greater relevance and importance to more recent events than we do to more distant ones. When equities delivered exorbitant returns during the great bull market of [...]Read More >

The Absolute Return Letter, March 2015 Tigers in Africa This month's Absolute Return Letter is about unrealistic expectations which is something we are all guilty of from time to time. We look at why it is unrealistic to expect equity returns to be in the double digit range over the next several [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2099 By Steve Blumenthal March 4, 2014 Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Cyclical Equity Market Trend: The Primary Trend Remains Bullish for Stocks Volume Demand Continues to Better Volume Supply: Bullish for Stocks Weekly Investor Sentiment Indicator: NDR [...]Read More >

February 27, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal This past week Germany sold five-year debt at a negative yield for the first time in history. Read, wash, rinse and repeat. A negative yield for the first time in history. The problem globally is unmanageable debt. An investor gets to pay Germany money for [...]Read More >

2/24/2015 @ 6:27PM Steve Blumenthal, Contributor What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play.” - Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator There has been a lot of debate on [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2115 By Steve Blumenthal February 25, 2014 Trend evidence remains favorable yet sentiment has climbed back to Extreme Optimism.  Such readings are short-term bearish for the market. This week, along with the usual trend and sentiment charts, I include a special chart that [...]Read More >

February 20, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “I think the government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem and very often makes the problem worse.” - Milton Friedman A close friend bought a $1 million condo but he did something very unusual, he borrowed the mortgage loan in Yen instead [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2100 By Steve Blumenthal February 18, 2014 Every once in a while I post a chart on “margin debt”. Like available cash, margin debt can be used to buy stocks. Such demand can fuel stock prices higher.  Problems tend to occur when you reach extreme. Evidence suggests we have [...]Read More >

February 13, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play” Jesse Livermore – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator There has been a lot of debate on the [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2032 By Steve Blumenthal February 11, 2014 I came across the following special chart this week.  It speaks directly to the investor behavior and how it tends to be wrong (behaviorally buy and selling at the wrong times).  Often quoted Warren Buffett says, “Be fearful when [...]Read More >

February 6, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal In ev'ry job that must be done There is an element of fun You find the fun and snap! The job's a game And ev'ry task you undertake Becomes a piece of cake A lark! A spree! It's very clear to see that A Spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down The [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2032 By Steve Blumenthal February 4, 2014 My college soccer coach used to always teach us that “soccer is a game of opposites”. Fake left to move right. That part everyone knows. Where it got complicated (and frustrating for a coach) was tactical positioning in response to [...]Read More >