S&P 500 Index 2115 By Steve Blumenthal February 25, 2014 Trend evidence remains favorable yet sentiment has climbed back to Extreme Optimism.  Such readings are short-term bearish for the market. This week, along with the usual trend and sentiment charts, I include a special chart that [...]Read More >

February 20, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “I think the government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem and very often makes the problem worse.” - Milton Friedman A close friend bought a $1 million condo but he did something very unusual, he borrowed the mortgage loan in Yen instead [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2100 By Steve Blumenthal February 18, 2014 Every once in a while I post a chart on “margin debt”. Like available cash, margin debt can be used to buy stocks. Such demand can fuel stock prices higher.  Problems tend to occur when you reach extreme. Evidence suggests we have [...]Read More >

February 13, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play” Jesse Livermore – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator There has been a lot of debate on the [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2032 By Steve Blumenthal February 11, 2014 I came across the following special chart this week.  It speaks directly to the investor behavior and how it tends to be wrong (behaviorally buy and selling at the wrong times).  Often quoted Warren Buffett says, “Be fearful when [...]Read More >

February 6, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal In ev'ry job that must be done There is an element of fun You find the fun and snap! The job's a game And ev'ry task you undertake Becomes a piece of cake A lark! A spree! It's very clear to see that A Spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down The [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2032 By Steve Blumenthal February 4, 2014 My college soccer coach used to always teach us that “soccer is a game of opposites”. Fake left to move right. That part everyone knows. Where it got complicated (and frustrating for a coach) was tactical positioning in response to [...]Read More >

Feb 4, 2015 Bloomberg Radio’s Catherine Cowdery interviewed CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. CEO Steve Blumenthal last week at the Inside ETFs Conference in Hollywood, Florida.  In the interview, Steve discusses his firm's current fixed income allocation and industry groups that appear at the [...]Read More >

January 30, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal I spend a great deal of time writing about valuations, probable future returns (near record lows today), portfolio construction and risk management. Reflecting on four days of non-stop sessions, media interviews and meetings at the Inside ETFs Annual [...]Read More >

  Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2014 fourth quarter and year end net performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG Managed Blends and [...]Read More >

January 23, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “I often disdain economic forecasts as a stock market indicator. First, the consensus forecasts of economics are often wrong, and more importantly, the stock market tends to lead the economy, so it is like trying to put the cart in front of the horse.” Ned [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2032 By Steve Blumenthal January 21, 2014 Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed evidence remains favorable (following chart) as do my two favorite cyclical trend indicators (Big Momentum and 13/34-Week EMA).  Daily Investor Sentiment is reading Extreme Pessimism – a short-term [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2010 By Steve Blumenthal January 14, 2014 Today, along with the updated cyclical trend and sentiment charts, let’s take a look at margin debt and liquidity. You’ll see that margin debt is at a record high and liquidity is very low - not a favorable combination. However, the [...]Read More >

January 9, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "We shouldn't be raising rates before 2016." Chicago Fed President Charles Evans Evans, a voting member on the central bank's policymaking committee, told CNBC this week. The market responded favorably. Evans said he's hopeful that inflation will pick up. [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2026 By Steve Blumenthal January 7, 2015 The last several Investor Sentiment extremes (too much optimism) have done a pretty good job at identifying market correction turning points. After peaking at the second highest reading since late 2004, the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll is [...]Read More >