January 30, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal I spend a great deal of time writing about valuations, probable future returns (near record lows today), portfolio construction and risk management. Reflecting on four days of non-stop sessions, media interviews and meetings at the Inside ETFs Annual [...]Read More >

  Dear clients, friends and family: Following is the 2014 fourth quarter and year end net performance for CMG’s Tactical Investment Strategies along with our thoughts on each strategy over the past quarter. In addition, we have provided the net performance for the CMG Managed Blends and [...]Read More >

January 23, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “I often disdain economic forecasts as a stock market indicator. First, the consensus forecasts of economics are often wrong, and more importantly, the stock market tends to lead the economy, so it is like trying to put the cart in front of the horse.” Ned [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2032 By Steve Blumenthal January 21, 2014 Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed evidence remains favorable (following chart) as do my two favorite cyclical trend indicators (Big Momentum and 13/34-Week EMA).  Daily Investor Sentiment is reading Extreme Pessimism – a short-term [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2010 By Steve Blumenthal January 14, 2014 Today, along with the updated cyclical trend and sentiment charts, let’s take a look at margin debt and liquidity. You’ll see that margin debt is at a record high and liquidity is very low - not a favorable combination. However, the [...]Read More >

January 9, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "We shouldn't be raising rates before 2016." Chicago Fed President Charles Evans Evans, a voting member on the central bank's policymaking committee, told CNBC this week. The market responded favorably. Evans said he's hopeful that inflation will pick up. [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2026 By Steve Blumenthal January 7, 2015 The last several Investor Sentiment extremes (too much optimism) have done a pretty good job at identifying market correction turning points. After peaking at the second highest reading since late 2004, the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll is [...]Read More >

In this PMC Vantage Point video, Brooks Friederich, Director, Fund Strategist Portfolios at Envestnet, discusses "The Tactics on Tactical Strategies".  Learn about the different types of tactical strategies, how to use them within client portfolios, and how to set proper performance expectations. [...]Read More >

January 2, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal Each month, I like to look at the market’s valuation to get a sense of potential upside reward relative to downside risk. Today, let’s look at three valuation measures, one based on reported earnings through 12-31-2014, one based on operating revenue, and the [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2084 By Steve Blumenthal December 31, 2014 The weight of evidence continues to support the continuation of the current cyclical bull market trend. Risk is high as the equity market remains overvalued and the cyclical trend aged. Investor sentiment has once again reached [...]Read More >

December 26, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal All cycles eventually come to an end.  In the case of commodity bulls, 16 years is the average duration.  The longest lasted 24 years (1896–1920), the shortest lasted 8 years (1972–1980), and the most recent secular bull ended in 2011 after 12 years. What [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2082 By Steve Blumenthal December 24, 2014 The weight of evidence continues to support the aged cyclical bull market. Click here for my recently published Forbes article discussing the probabilities for 2015. Risk is high and the equity market is expensive. Let’s keep a [...]Read More >

12/18/2014 @ 3:16PM Steve Blumenthal , Contributor I wrote often throughout 2014 about the danger signals flashing from an excessive run up in debt and derivatives. We have a repeat of the scenario we suffered in 2008, only much worse (Watch Junks Bonds For Early Warnings Of New Financial [...]Read More >

December 12, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "Unselfish acts are the real miracles out of which all the reported miracles grow." - Ralph Waldo Emerson Have you watched any of the great Netflix TV series House of Cards? Set in present-day Washington, D.C., House of Cards is the story of Frank Underwood [...]Read More >

December 17, 2014 By Aparna Narayanan Investor's Business Daily Russian markets took a fatal fall Tuesday after a massive hike in interest rate sparked instability in the ruble.  Despite President Vladimir Putin assuring the economy will be cured, the country's stock has been slammed in recent [...]Read More >