October 11, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal “It would be insane to default, but it’s no longer a zero-percent probability,” said Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund who teaches economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and is a columnist for Bloomberg [...]Read More >

September 20, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal If you asked me five years ago if the largest investment manager on the planet, BlackRock, would suggest to a room of professionals to “allocate to flexible core bond alternatives, find unconstrained managers and implement long/short strategies”, I would [...]Read More >

Click here to listen to Steve's interview on Taking Stock with Pimm Fox & Carol Masser on Friday. He touches on high valuation in the markets, expected forward returns and why it's important to set proper expectations in today's market environment. [...]Read More >

"Japanese Yen Still a Clear Short" - Emerging market stocks are cheap buys following the summer's sell-off  but investors should short the Yen, says Steve. Click here to take a look at the full clip from Steve's conversation with Gregg Greenberg of TheStreet.com on September 27. [...]Read More >

September 20, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal   I have had the same hair stylist for 15 years.  Fancy word, “stylist”.  I’d say barber but he would definitely take offense, so stylist it is.  Don’t tell him but I think stylist means $45 and barber means $15.  Anyway, I’m totally loyal, I trust [...]Read More >

September 13, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal Looking for a feel-good financial read this weekend?  I highly recommend Gary Shilling’s Advantage America that John Mauldin highlighted in his most recent Outside the Box. Speaking of Mauldin, he and I spoke in Chicago at the Trinity Financial Investor [...]Read More >

September 6, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal This week, I share the following relevant research: Seventh Inning Stretch – PIMCO’s Bill Gross Peak Earnings Equals Peak Valuations – a telling chart The Behavior Gap - Blumenthal Viewpoint How to Make Risk Your Friend – Deepak Chopra, [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal August 29, 2013 Following is an excerpt from the piece that highlights the issues MPT is facing today: The conversation you should have with your clients is not that modern portfolio theory (MPT) is wrong, rather that it’s time to question whether 60/40 remains the best [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1630 By Steve Blumenthal August 28, 2013 Included in this week’s update: • Sentiment Charts – Pessimism is now extreme (short-term bullish for the market) • Cyclical Bull Market Charts – The market remains in a cyclical bull market trend • A look at PE valuations – The [...]Read More >

August 23, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal An advisor client called the other day and wanted to talk about investor behavior.  Broadly diversified portfolios will always underperform the top performing asset classes at any given time.  He wanted to know how I might advise a client who is comparing his [...]Read More >

August 21, 2013: "[Retail] investors are behaviorally doing the exact opposite of what they should be doing," said Steve Blumenthal, whose advisory firm manages $550 million for investment advisers and retail clients. "Emerging markets have perhaps the best valuation level of any of the markets, but [...]Read More >

July 12, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal Stonewall Golf Club – hole 18   Stonewalled – What’s the average investor do? We walked off the 18th green and Chuck, my good friend and long-time caddie, says, “Steve, can I ask you a question about my wife’s 401k? What should I do?”  I sensed the [...]Read More >

August 16, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal Bright Future “Dad, though this card is small, it was the only message that I could find that even came close to how I’ve felt about this summer.  Thank you – for this entire summer.  Thank you for encouraging me to do something I didn’t think I was able to [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1690 By Steve Blumenthal August 14, 2013 I did some digging into the data around past cyclical bull periods and thought I’d share some of what I learned with you: The current cyclical bull move began in March of 2009 and is now four years and five months old. This makes [...]Read More >

August 9, 2013 By Steve Blumenthal (from the 361 Capital Weekly Research Briefing) Every quarter for as long as I can remember, I anxiously await Jeremy Grantham’s quarterly investment letter.  Jeremy’s firm manages more than $100 billion.  I remember how he stuck to his disciplined process in [...]Read More >