February 17, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “I don’t think what we’re going through right now is just a normal cycle fluctuation. For over forty years we were in an environment with declining interest rates, and for the last thirteen years, we had this benign, accommodative environment. [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Zweig Bond Model Sell Signal - 02-15-2023
Trade Signals, by Steve Blumenthal February 15, 2023, S&P 500 Index --4,117 Markets move in cycles, and cycles will always exist. Trade Signals provides a weekly snapshot of current stock, bond, currency, and gold market trends. Trade Signals is a summary of technical indicators to help you [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Ray Dalio – Part II, What’s Happening Now - 02-10-2023
February 10, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “The Money-Credit-Debt-Markets-Economic Cycles: In my opinion the tightening that began in March 2022 ended the last paradigm in which central banks gave away money and credit essentially for free, which was great for the borrower-debtors. We [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: 7 Months Since Yield Curve Inverted (Median Prior to Recession Start is 11 Months) - 02-9-2023
Trade Signals, by Steve Blumenthal February 8, 2023, S&P 500 Index --4,118 Markets move in cycles, and cycles will always exist. Trade Signals provides a weekly snapshot of current stock, bond, currency, and gold market trends. Trade Signals is a summary of technical indicators to help you [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Movement of Liquidity - 02-3-2023
February 3, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “Over the past year, the S&P 500 has retreated only modestly from its January 2022 speculative peak, yet interest rates have normalized to a much greater extent. That, in my view, is probably the most dangerous aspect of the current market [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Extreme Optimism Ignores the Fed - 02-2-2023
Trade Signals, by Steve Blumenthal February 1, 2023, S&P 500 Index --4,119 Markets move in cycles, and cycles will always exist. Trade Signals provides a weekly snapshot of current stock, bond, currency, and gold market trends. Trade Signals is a summary of technical indicators to help you [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Recession Indicators Signal Recession - 01-27-2023
January 27, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “Earnings don't move the market; it's the Federal Reserve Board... focus on the Central Banks, and focus on the movement of liquidity... most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It's liquidity that moves [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Improving Trend Evidence – Extreme Optimism and High Recession Probability Signals Caution - 01-26-2023
Trade Signals, by Steve Blumenthal January 25, 2023, S&P 500 Index --4,016 Markets move in cycles, and cycles will always exist. Trade Signals provides a weekly snapshot of current stock, bond, currency, and gold market trends. Trade Signals is a summary of technical indicators to help you [...]Read More >
On My Radar: For Want of A Nail - 01-20-2023
January 20, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “Debt crises are inevitable. Throughout history, only a very few well-disciplined countries have avoided debt crises. That’s because lending is never done perfectly and is often done badly due to how the cycle affects people’s psychology to [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: 10-year Treasury Falls to 3.38% – Bullish Signal on Bonds Remains - 01-18-2023
Trade Signals, by Steve Blumenthal January 18, 2023, S&P 500 Index --3.929 Markets move in cycles, and cycles will always exist. Trade Signals provides a weekly snapshot of current stock, bond, currency, and gold market trends. Trade Signals is a summary of technical indicators to help you [...]Read More >
On My Radar: Ray Dalio, Navigating Big Debt Crises - 01-12-2023
January 13, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “Inharrent in big crises are opportunities.” – Ian Bremmer I'm on vacation this week, skiing in Snowbird, Utah. The rain kept falling in California, and as the storms moved east, the snow kept falling in Utah. We've had over three feet of [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: Bullish on Bonds - 01-11-2023
Trade Signals, by Steve Blumenthal January 11, 2022, S&P 500 Index --3.919 Markets move in cycles, and cycles will always exist. Trade Signals provides a weekly snapshot of current stock, bond, currency, and gold market trends. Trade Signals is a summary of technical indicators to help you [...]Read More >
On My Radar: The Current State of Play - 01-6-2023
January 6, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal “Extreme patience combined with extreme decisiveness. You may call that our investment process. Yes, it's that simple.” – Charlie Munger “Cash combined with courage in a crisis is priceless.” – Warren Buffett Last week I reviewed my investment [...]Read More >
Trade Signals: 40-Year Record Inversion - 01-6-2023
Trade Signals, by Steve Blumenthal January 5, 2022, S&P 500 Index --3.813 Markets move in cycles, and cycles will always exist. Trade Signals provides a weekly snapshot of current stock, bond, currency, and gold market trends. Trade Signals is a summary of technical indicators to help you [...]Read More >
On My Radar: 2023 Investment Outlook - 12-30-2022
December 30, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “There are only two ways to live life. One is as though nothing is a miracle. The other is as though everything is a miracle.” – Albert Einstein Forecasting the future. It's an annual ritual played out on Wall Street, in C-suites, and in small [...]Read More >
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