August 2, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal The Sahm Rule triggered the recession call today. The (data) shows that the +80 bp jump in the jobless rate over the past year is a 100% iron-clad indicator that the downturn has either arrived or is about to. The Fed is as behind the economic curve [...]Read More >

  July 26, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "I changed my mind. The Fed needs to cut rates now." - Bill Dudley, former New York Fed President, Source: Bloomberg After an initial bounce Thursday morning, the equity markets reversed course late afternoon. The S&P 500 declined 0.51%, and [...]Read More >

  July 19, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "Excellence is never an accident. It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives. Choice, not chance, determines your destiny." - Dr. Aristotle  There is good [...]Read More >

  January 12, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "The art of investment is the discipline of inaction in the absence of a good opportunity, but aggressive action when one is identified." ­­– Li Lu Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data came in just above consensus estimates earlier this [...]Read More >

  October 27, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "We shall not cease from exploration, and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time. " – T.S. Elliot In a conversation with a client this week, he shared the above quote by T.S. [...]Read More >

  October 20, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "The world's most crucial benchmark market is on an unpredictable journey with an uncertain destination." – Mohamed El-Erian is President of Queens’ College, Cambridge University, an advisor to Allianz and Gramercy, and a best-selling author. [...]Read More >

  October 13, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "To push the point home, I want to make clear that I believe that we are in that brief part of the Big Cycle when the conflicts are heating up, and the leading powers still have the ability to choose between crossing that line into brutal war or [...]Read More >

  October 6, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Peace begins with a smile." ­­– Mother Teresa I received a lot of feedback from last week's OMR letter. I appreciate the dialogue, especially when our views differ. When attending a conference or listening to a round table discussion on a [...]Read More >

  September 29, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Interest rates are the heart, the soul, and the life of the free market system. They ARE the cost of money. When costs go up, earnings go down. Real incomes go down. We are in a different investment environment than anything investors have [...]Read More >

  September 22, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time." - Thomas A. Edison The days are growing shorter. Tomorrow marks the official start of fall. For me, it began last evening, [...]Read More >

  September 15, 2023 By Steve Blumenthal "I know that it is fashionable to talk about a ‘dual mandate’ – that policy should be directed toward the two objectives of price stability and full employment. Fashionable or not, I find that mandate both operationally confusing and [...]Read More >

On Friday, December 15, CMG Founder and CIO Steve Blumenthal was interviewed by Nasdaq global markets reporter Jill Maladrino.  Jill asked Steve about the current state of the market, his 2018 outlook and his recent On My Radar piece called “Start Small, Grow Tall.” Click below to watch the short [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal December 21, 2016 S&P 500 Index -- 2,267 Posted each Wednesday, Trade Signals looks at several of my favorite stock, investor sentiment and bond market indicators.  Market trends persist over time and stem from changes in risk premiums or the amount of return investors [...]Read More >

September 2, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal Woody Allen closes “Annie Hall” with a joke: This guy goes to a psychiatrist and says, ‘Doc, my brother's crazy; he thinks he's a chicken.’  And the doctor says, ‘Well, why don't you turn him in?’  The guy says, ‘I would, but I need the eggs.’ That pretty [...]Read More >

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