November 15, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "It isn't what we don't know that gives us trouble; it's what we know that ain't so." - Will Rogers (November 4, 1879 – August 15, 1935) Today, let's put some hard numbers into play and then game theory the economic implications going forward. [...]Read More >

  November 8, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "This is much bigger than politics; this is a cultural moment."  — Dr. Pippa Malmgren The results are in. The stock market took off like a rocket ship, and interest rates shot higher. Like it or not, it's primarily red across the board. Trump is [...]Read More >

  November 1, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "The Great Powers Index is a very thorough report on each of the leading 24 countries, showing readings for several different categories of well-being with many measures of each category.  It also uses these measures to provide a prognosis for the [...]Read More >

  October 25, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "A failure to correct unsustainable fiscal trajectories poses major risks to growth, inflation, and financial stability." — Augustine Carstens, General Manager, Bank of International Settlements, October 22, 2024 Yes, precisely what he [...]Read More >

  October 18, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "When you're easing into a meltup in financial markets, and we have the fiscal policy we have going forward, it's certainly a risk. And I just think it's a mistake not to be taking that risk into account." — Stanley Drunkenmiller, Bloomberg [...]Read More >

  October 11, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "Bottom line, yields across the curve are at the highs of the day with the 10 yr yield now at 4.07%, the highest since late July. While the Fed’s aggressive rate cut, the China stimulus news, and the better-than-expected jobs report are likely [...]Read More >

  October 4, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "This beautiful deleveraging can only be done in countries that have most of their bad debts denominated in their own currencies and have most of the debtors and creditors as their own citizens, which is the case for China. Doing a deleveraging in [...]Read More >

  September 27, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "The earlier you find your passion, the better—because it won’t seem like a chore to follow your dream, and you’ll outwork everyone in the process." — Todd Combs Every week, I sift through the noise, searching for research that genuinely [...]Read More >

  September 20, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "Risk is the probability of loss." — Howard Marks I’m a big fan of Howard Marks’s Memos on investing strategies, and I bet you are, too. The investing world has its own vocabulary, and when writing about it, many in the industry often struggle [...]Read More >

  September 13, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "We are here, we'd be better off here." — Steve Blumenthal, CMG, On My Radar   We talked about valuations last week and received many thoughtful responses. I want to share one particularly excellent one from Dan S: "Hi Steve, I have [...]Read More >

  September 6, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "It’s not whether you get knocked down, it’s whether you get up." — Vince Lombardi Bonds now, stocks later.  When I started in the business in 1984, few investors thought long-term. Most believed the way to succeed was to trade the market. [...]Read More >

  August 30, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal Dr. Lacy Hunt argues that the Fed's current policy stance is too restrictive for the economy's growth rate. He points out that the average growth of real per capita GDP and GDI is around 1.4%, aligning with the long-term trend since the 1970s. With [...]Read More >

  August 23, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." - Milton Friedman  Located in the heart of the Teton Mountain Range, Jackson Hole is a sunlit paradise in the summer and a powdery haven for skiers in the winter. Wildflowers bloom in [...]Read More >

  August 16, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "We're caught in a trap I can't walk out Because I love you too much, baby" - Elvis Presley, Suspicious Minds July, consumer prices didn't rise as much as they have in the past, aligning with what experts expected. However, the cost of shelter [...]Read More >

  August 9, 2024 By Steve Blumenthal "It's the things you learn after you know it all that count." - Coach John Wooden's personal note to Bill Walton  Last Monday, the yen surged, and Tokyo's stock market plunged as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) unexpectedly hiked its policy rate to a [...]Read More >