February 11, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "In the end, there is always inflation." - Ray Dalio, Co-Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Bridgewater Associates, LP The hottest inflation news in 40 years hit the wires this week. The January Consumer Price Index report showed the most significant [...]Read More >

February 4, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal Pause the story of hope for just a minute as I do my best to set the stage.  Jeremy Grantham is calling our current state a "Super Bubble." If you missed it, last week's On My Radar was titled "Three Sigma – Three Events in the Last 100 Years (Until Now)." [...]Read More >

January 28, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “A two sigma is the kind of deviation that should occur every 44 years. Because we're a little wilder and less efficient than we should be, it happens every 35 years. Every 35 years feels about right… one event in a career and twice in a lifetime. Three [...]Read More >

January 21, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “I don’t think the Federal Reserve and this leadership has the stamina to act decisively. In order to turn the market around to a more non-inflationary attitude, you have to shock the market. You can’t raise interest rates bit by bit.” - Dr. Henry [...]Read More >

January 14, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” – Milton Friedman (July 31, 1912 – November 16, 2006), American [...]Read More >

January 7, 2022 By Steve Blumenthal “An optimist understands that life can be a bumpy road, but at least it is leading somewhere. They learn from mistakes and failures and are not afraid to fail again.” – Harvey McKay, seven-time New York Times best-selling author of "Swim With The Sharks [...]Read More >

December 31, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “In my view, modern monetary theory ("MMT") has been tried, tested, and failed.” - Dr. Lacy Hunt, Executive Vice President, Hoisington Investment Management Company Let me begin by wishing you a Happy New Year. Today, I share an outstanding discussion. Camp [...]Read More >

December 17, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “I would say, asset valuations... are somewhat elevated.” - Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell, Wednesday, December 15, 2021 One part of today’s On My Radar missive is dull, the second is obvious, and the third is outright intoxicating. We’ll look at [...]Read More >

December 10, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “Like a chess player, one has to observe the enemy’s moves as well as one’s own.” ― Muhammad ibn Ali ibn Sulayman al-Rawandi, Rahat al-Sudur wa Ayat al-Surur (AD 1202-07) Russia, China, and Iran. Important developments this week that are worth our [...]Read More >

December 3, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "If you don't do it this year, you'll be one year older when you do." ― Warren Miller, American ski and snowboarding filmmaker By the time today's OMR hits your inbox, I'll be in a pub in London with my son Kyle. Kyle's a senior in college and is doing a [...]Read More >

November 26, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "I have no doubt that we are in a raging mania in all assets," Stan Druckenmiller told CNBC in May. "I also have no doubt that I don't have a clue when that's gonna end." ― Stanley Druckenmiller, American investor, hedge fund manager, and [...]Read More >

November 19, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "People don't care how much you know until they know how much you care." ― Theodore Roosevelt Jr., 26th President of the United States If you’ve been following the journey of my wife Susan’s soccer team often highlighted over the last several months in each [...]Read More >

November 12, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal “There isn’t an individual, organization, country, or empire that hasn’t failed when it lost its buying power. To be successful one must earn an amount that is at least equal to the amount one spends. Those who spend modestly and have a surplus are more [...]Read More >

November 5, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "Taking on a challenge is a lot like riding a horse, isn't it? If you're comfortable while you're doing it, you're probably doing it wrong." ― Coach Ted Lasso Jerome Powell delivered the tapering news everyone expected. It begins. However, central bankers [...]Read More >

October 29, 2021 By Steve Blumenthal "Excessive indebtedness acts as a tax on future growth and it is also consistent with Hyman Minsky’s concept of 'Ponzi finance,' which is that the size and type of debt being added cannot generate a cash flow to repay principal and interest. While the debt has [...]Read More >