May 17, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “The only outcomes are an orderly restructure or unorderly restructure [of the debts].” - William White Former Chief Economist of the Bank for International Settlements The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is known as the central banker’s banker. [...]Read More >

May 10, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal "Corrections happen during growth-rate cycle slowdowns, they don't require a recession." - Lakshman Achuthan, Economic Cycle Research Institute On Sunday afternoon, I fly to Dallas to attend the 16th annual Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference (SIC). [...]Read More >

May 3, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Forty decades of a single market environment tends to create bad investing habits. U.S. interest rates have steadily fallen since 1981. Investors have consistently benefited from using long-term bonds and taking interest rate risk.” – @movement_cap I remember [...]Read More >

April 26, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “As an investor, you make the most money when you do things that other people aren’t willing to do, like taking risks others shun. Attractive investment opportunities arise when you spot some security or some part of the market being ignored and you come to the [...]Read More >

April 19, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Peace is its own reward.” - Mahatma Gandhi This week’s post is holiday-weekend short. Grab that coffee and find your favorite chair. You’ll find a simple chart that shows the history of cyclical bull and bear markets (with returns before and after inflation). [...]Read More >

April 12, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal "The economy is a collection of emotions." - Kenneth Langone Speaking to first-year NYU medical students, Kenneth G. Langone and his wife, Elaine, stepped to the podium. Their announcement shook the room. “From this point on, NYU Medical School is tuition-free [...]Read More >

April 5, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Meanwhile, over the past 10 years, low interest rates meant that we kept bringing tomorrow’s growth forward to today. Unfortunately, we may now have run out of tomorrow’s growth, and are about to start to regret eating today’s growth yesterday.” – [...]Read More >

March 29, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal "There's a lot of reasons to think that it has been a recession predictor for reasons in the past that kind of don't apply today." – John Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Is it different this time? Williams is saying yes. The bond [...]Read More >

March 22, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “This U-Turn on nothing fundamentally changing is unprecedented. Three months ago, we were on ‘autopilot’ with the balance sheet and now the bond market is priced for a rate cut this year. The reversal in their stance is stunning.” - Jeffrey Gundlach CEO, [...]Read More >

March 15, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Business cycles are a type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises: a cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by [...]Read More >

March 8, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “To refer to a personal taste of mine, I’m going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the ‘Hallelujah Chorus’ in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it’s the same with [...]Read More >

March 1, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “Optimism is highly valued, socially and in the market; people and firms reward the providers of dangerously misleading information more than they reward truth tellers. One of the lessons of the financial crisis that led to the Great Recession is that there are [...]Read More >

February 22, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “The markets believed in December that the Fed was on the precipice of making a huge policy error – and the central bank pulled back.  End of story… From my lens, the Fed had already overtightened and recession risks for this year are elevated and on the [...]Read More >

February 15, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal "We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness." - Daniel Kahneman It’s been a fantastic equity market rally but keep your lights on, from a statistical perspective, odds favor a retest of the December low. I came across the [...]Read More >

February 8, 2019 By Steve Blumenthal “He went from being “Pragmatic Powell” to a “Powell Put.” But I do worry about people buying the dip because it does remind me a little of how the credit crisis developed with sub-prime starting to crack in 2007 it cracked down to $80 and people bought that [...]Read More >