December 29, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “I don’t believe that I am the only person who cannot predict future prices. No one consistently can predict anything, especially investors.  Prices, not investors, predict the future. Despite this, investors hope or believe that they can predict the future, [...]Read More >

December 22, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “BIS [Bank of International Settlements] research suggests that the ups and downs of the dollar – and the cycle of dollar liquidity – are what drive the world’s animal spirits and asset prices. This liquidity spigot is clearly being turned off. The Fed is [...]Read More >

December 15, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “For when the One Great Scorer comes To mark against your name, He writes -- not that you won or lost --  But how you played the Game.” > Grantland Rice (from the poem "Alumnus Football") When I was young, my mother bought me a book written by [...]Read More >

December 8, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal I met Philippa Dunne, co-editor of The Liscio Report, at the Camp Kotok fishing trip last August.  She dials into state tax receipts and has many deep contacts.  What I like is how she tracks the data on the lookout for recession risks.  I found the most recent [...]Read More >

December 1, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… Focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… Most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.” [...]Read More >

November 24, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.” - Benjamin Graham Happy Thanksgiving to you and your wonderful family.  Today’s post is holiday short because by the time it hits your in box I’ll hopefully be [...]Read More >

November 17, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “If you are adding to your long-term holdings of stocks and other risk assets at current market valuations, you are likely to be betting -- knowingly or not -- on a combination of three drivers of future returns; or you are planning to sell your holdings to [...]Read More >

November 10, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “We are going to have to address the debt.  And we are going to get more debt.” – Joe Kalish, Chief Global Macro Strategist, Ned Davis Research This week’s On My Radar is an investment outlook piece.  While current trend evidence remains bullish, you’ll see [...]Read More >

November 3, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “There are essentially two forces influencing returns: growth and inflation. The task, then, is building a portfolio that can weather any scenario, regardless of what these factors are doing…  You should be building a diversified portfolio with assets that [...]Read More >

October 27, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Collectively, the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan own one-third of the global bond market. “ – Mary Ellen Stanek, CFA Managing Director and Director of Asset Management, Robert W. Baird & Co., Chief Investment Officer, Baird [...]Read More >

October 20, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “You have to bet against the consensus and be right to be successful in the markets.” – Ray Dalio, Founder, Bridgewater Associates, LP It remains a decidedly risk-on environment.  Interest rates are higher, the dollar is higher and the stock market is higher. [...]Read More >

October 13, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Long-term Investors need to be invested in long-term assets, but pay special attention to limiting downside losses. The best way to make money in the long term is not losing it in the short term.” – Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist J.P. Morgan Asset [...]Read More >

October 6, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal "We think the main attribute of the next crisis will be severe liquidity disruptions resulting from market developments since the last crisis." - Marko Kolanovic, Ph.D., Head of Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy, JP Morgan Chase & Co. (Source: The [...]Read More >

September 29, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “It isn’t what’s in my head that’s most valuable, although I did learn a lot along the way; it’s knowing how to deal with not knowing that’s been the source of my success.” – Ray Dalio I’d like to take you to two places today.  One is life and the pursuit [...]Read More >

September 22, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “The message from a string of BIS [Bank of International Settlements] reports is that the US dollar is both the barometer and agent of global risk appetite and credit leverage. Episodes of dollar weakness - such as this year - flush the world with liquidity [...]Read More >