January 13, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Don't be afraid of change for it is the catalyst of opportunity.” – Unknown We want it short, we want it easy to understand and we want it right.  Here’s my best guess: U.S. stocks will remain in an uptrend fueled by a strong dollar Tax cuts, [...]Read More >

January 6, 2017 By Steve Blumenthal “Promise yourself to be so strong that nothing can disturb your peace of mind.  Look at the sunny side of everything and make your optimism come true. Think only of the best, work only for the best, and expect only the best.  Forget the mistakes of the past [...]Read More >

December 30, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.” - Ben Bernanke (2008) I mentioned last week there would be no OMR this week.  Well, against my wife Susan’s best advice (to take the week off), following is a short post I hope you find [...]Read More >

December 23, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Stay wary, alert and very, very nimble.” – Art Cashin Managing Director, UBS Financial Services I read Art’s letter almost every day and, boy, do I enjoy his wit, his compassion and his brains.  In the spirit of Christmas, his post this morning was [...]Read More >

December 16, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures.  It’s liquidity that moves markets.” - [...]Read More >

December 9, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “If you're not getting better, you're getting worse.” - Walter Bahr PSU Coach Walter Bahr (right) In June 1950, Walter Bahr, a 23-year-old junior high school physical education teacher from Philadelphia, led the United States soccer team to a 1-0 victory [...]Read More >

December 2, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “There are three things we should all do every day: Number one is laugh (you should laugh every day), number two is think (you should spend some time in thought) and number three is you should have your emotions moved to tears (tears could be for [...]Read More >

November 18, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “To be clear, we are more non-ideological and practical/mechanical because to us economies and markets work like machines and our job is simply to understand how the levers will be moved and what outcome the moving of them is likely to produce.” — Ray [...]Read More >

November 11, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal This is the end, beautiful friend This is the end, my only friend, the end Of our elaborate plans, the end Of everything that stands, the end No safety or surprise, the end I'll never look into your eyes, again — The Doors, “End of the Night" To many, [...]Read More >

November 4, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal "Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always, first and foremost protecting your butt." "I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you [...]Read More >

October 28, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “You diversify.  You have a whole bunch of uncorrelated investment bets. And then you understand it (the situation) as best you can.” — Ray Dalio I had a long talk with an advisor client this week about portfolio construction, the economy, the debt cycle and [...]Read More >

October 21, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal "So the real question that I think people should think of is: Are we at the end of a long-term debt cycle?" — Ray Dalio I’ve written a great deal about debt.  In last week’s piece, I showed the enormity of the problem.  Growth is slow and I believe will [...]Read More >

October 14, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “The most rewarding things you do in life are often the ones that look like they cannot be done." "I've always made a total effort, even when the odds seemed entirely against me. I never quit trying; I never felt that I didn't have a chance to win.” — Arnold [...]Read More >

October 7, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Value investing is simple to understand but difficult to implement.” — Seth Klarman, The Baupost Group Today, let’s take a look at the most recent market valuations.  Hint and not a surprise: both stocks and bonds remain expensively priced.  Value?  Not [...]Read More >

September 30, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” -- Yogi Berra Something just doesn’t feel right to me.  In March 2008, Bear Stearns executives made a shocking discovery: They were nearly out of cash.  They faced a barrage of withdrawals from worried clients.  In a [...]Read More >