September 30, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” -- Yogi Berra Something just doesn’t feel right to me.  In March 2008, Bear Stearns executives made a shocking discovery: They were nearly out of cash.  They faced a barrage of withdrawals from worried clients.  In a [...]Read More >

September 23, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Being fully invested is a myth.  You shouldn’t always be fully invested.” Mark W. Yusko, Founder, CEO and CIO Morgan Creek Capital Management, at the 2016 Morningstar ETF Conference Last week, I shared some of my notes from the recent Morningstar ETF [...]Read More >

September 16, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal Human beings do something really well.  They buy what they wish they would have bought and they are spectacular at it. The last time we had a record amount of money move to passive was in March 2000.  Back then only 10% of the market was passive and today it [...]Read More >

September 9, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal I and others however, have for several years now, suggested that the primary problem lies with zero/negative interest rates; that not only do they fail to provide an "easing cushion" should recession come knocking at the door, but they [...]Read More >

September 2, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal Woody Allen closes “Annie Hall” with a joke: This guy goes to a psychiatrist and says, ‘Doc, my brother's crazy; he thinks he's a chicken.’  And the doctor says, ‘Well, why don't you turn him in?’  The guy says, ‘I would, but I need the eggs.’ That pretty [...]Read More >

August 26, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “We live at a time where the unthinkable has become common.” — B. Scott Minerd, Managing Partner, Guggenheim Partners Do you remember the story book The Little Engine That Could?  The best known version of the story was written by "Watty Piper," the pen name [...]Read More >

August 19, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “In the realm of economics, no government can play god.” -- José Niño, Analyst, Acton Circle of Chile I came across today’s intro quote this week while sitting in my beach chair facing the Atlantic Ocean.  The title seems apropos to the world we find ourselves [...]Read More >

August 12, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “We’ve been bulls on 30-year Treasury bonds since 1981 when we stated, “We’re entering the bond rally of a lifetime.” “Their yields back then were 15.2%, but our forecast called for huge declines in inflation and, with it, a gigantic fall in bond yields to our [...]Read More >

On My Radar: Taking the “E” Train South August 5, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “There is no panacea for the low returns implied by asset valuations today. Anyone suggesting differently is either fooling themselves or trying to fool you.  But piling into the assets that have been the biggest help to [...]Read More >

July 29, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “Last week, market conditions joined the same tiny handful of extremes that defined the 1929, 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2007 market peaks.” - John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (Source) At a recent investment conference, one of the panelists was an investment officer for the [...]Read More >

July 22, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “We’ve had a lot of QE and we are not sure if it works.” - Former Dallas Fed President, Richard Fisher (Source) One of the best reads for me this week came from the creative pen of Danielle DiMartino Booth.  She was an analyst at the Dallas Federal Reserve for [...]Read More >

July 15, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal I don't know how to love him, What to do, how to move him. I've been changed, yes, really changed. In these past few days when I've seen myself I seem like someone else… Should I bring him down? Should I scream and shout? Should I speak of love - let my [...]Read More >

July 8, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal Bonds are what they are. Today, they are less than what they are. It is said—nothing is ever new under the sun of finance… but we do live in a unique time in two critical ways—interest rates and monetary moment. A few years ago, a book appeared called A History of [...]Read More >

July 1, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal “We recognize that our EU policies aren’t working for everybody. That’s okay. We just have to figure out how to make sure that everybody gets what they need, even if it means less control from Brussels.” -European Union’s founding members: Belgium, France, [...]Read More >

June 24, 2016 By Steve Blumenthal  “Italeave, Finish, Czechout, Oustria, Byegium and Departugal.” -- Wilfred Frost, CNBC, June 24, 2016 Brexit!  The world markets are in shock.  What’s next?  You'll find my thinking below.  This is day 1. There is more to come. I’m en route to California [...]Read More >