October 30, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Whatever the form of risk and risk measurement one uses, the important thing to know is that diversification reduces risk and can be used to reduce risks without reducing returns.” – Ray Dalio Ray Dalio’s “risk parity” or “all weather” investment process has [...]Read More >

October 23, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal  “Have the courage of your knowledge and experience. If you have formed a conclusion from the facts and if you know your judgment is sound, act on it — even though others may hesitate or differ. (You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with [...]Read More >

October 16, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal David Rubenstein, co-founder and co-CEO at The Carlyle Group, on Bloomberg TV several days ago, said, a U.S. recession is "inevitable."  "We have not really had a recession in six years," Rubenstein explained. "We came out of the last recession in June of [...]Read More >

October 9, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "Facing up" to returns that will be less than the historical norm is the "single largest factor out there we have to deal with." – AQR’s Cliff Asness Valuation work seems to be showing up everywhere. Being the data geek I am, each month I like to take a look [...]Read More >

October 2, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal Investor Behavior – “You can bury your head in 10q’s and 8k’s and memorize a thousand facts about a company. You can become an expert on a given stock sector and establish relationships with all of the executives who run the show. You can build your own DCF [...]Read More >

September 25, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “This Fed, massively dominated by academic Keynesians, has demonstrated that the conditions for normalizing rates are far more stringent than many of us had been led to believe from the speeches of the FOMC members themselves. This is a Federal Reserve with [...]Read More >

September 18, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “The effect of years of zero interest rate policies has been to progressively drive investors toward securities of greater and greater risk, in the belief that “There Is No Alternative” (TINA). In every other market cycle across history, once an “overvalued, [...]Read More >

September 11, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Of the nine market declines associated with recessions that started with valuations above the mean, the average decline was -42.8%. Of the four declines that began with valuations below the mean, the average was -19.9%” – Doug Short I don’t believe a [...]Read More >

September 4, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal At the National People’s Congress in Beijing in March 2015, China’s Premier Li Keqiang announced a growth target of 7 percent, acknowledging that “deep-seated problems in the country’s economy are becoming more obvious.” Three months later and thousands [...]Read More >

August 28, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal Harry Truman, Doris Day, Red China, Johnnie Ray South Pacific, Walter Winchell, Joe DiMaggio Joe McCarthy, Richard Nixon, Studebaker, television North Korea, South Korea, Marilyn Monroe… We didn't start the fire It was always burning Since the world's been [...]Read More >

August 21, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” - Winston Churchill Perhaps it is my early business roots that set my orientation towards a trading approach to the markets. Some of our clients take [...]Read More >

August 14, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Something is deeply wrong if an economy is not growing, because it means these natural processes are impeded. That is why around the world, since the Dark Ages, lack of growth has been a signal of political oppression or instability. Absent such sickness, [...]Read More >

August 7, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did do, so throw off the bowlines, sail away from safe harbor, catch the trade winds in your sails.  Explore, Dream, Discover." –Mark Twain A question [...]Read More >

July 31, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal   “Now look at them yo-yo's that's the way you do it You play the guitar on the M.T.V. That ain't workin' that's the way you do it Money for nothin' and your chicks for free.” Money For Nothing – Dire Straits   The Fed is sitting between a [...]Read More >

July 24, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “If you’re young, take the whack [and] if you’re old, pray for the Fed to keep going.” – Jeremy Grantham Grantham was the opening keynote at the Morningstar Investment Conference in late June.  There were several notable insights I share with you this week.  The [...]Read More >