July 17, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “When it does happen, it’s usually not the first-derivative event that people are caught off guard by. They’re caught off guard by the second, third and fourth derivative events. It’s ‘Oh yeah, when interest rates go up, that happens.” - Gary Cohn, Goldman Sachs’ [...]Read More >

July 10, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal   There is a high probability of a global recession. Today, let’s take a look at two models that have done a good job identifying recessions.  One says we are near or currently in a global recession. The reason this is important is that all significant [...]Read More >

July 2, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal  “If more respected investors had warned about the market in ’07, we might have avoided the crisis in ’08.  I think the public is walking into a trap again…” -  Carl Icahn via Twitter June 24, 2015 Following up on his Twitter post, Icahn called in to CNBC. [...]Read More >

June 26, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal  “People are habitually guided by the rear-view mirror and, for the most part, by the vistas immediately behind them.” - Warren Buffett I was the keynote speaker last night at a large advisor client event in suburban DC.  The title of my presentation was [...]Read More >

June 19, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal  “The probability of loss is no more measurable than the probability of rain. It can be modeled, and it can be estimated (and by experts pretty well), but it cannot be known.” - Howard Marks, Chairman, Oaktree Capital I enjoyed that quote as well as the piece [...]Read More >

June 12, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "The three great essentials to achieve anything worthwhile are: hard work, stick-to-itiveness, and common sense." - Thomas Edison A comment I frequently get is that stocks are cheap relative to bonds.  My answer is that view is short-sighted and runs head-on [...]Read More >

June 5, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “We fail to comprehend how owners of claims on money (that is, bondholders) can continue to ignore the fact that the goal of generating more inflation is aimed precisely at reducing the value of their capital.  The opportunity, then, is to short bonds.” - Paul [...]Read More >

May 29, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Negative-yield bonds now account for some €1.5 trillion of debt issued by governments in the euro area, equivalent to almost 30% of the total outstanding. Many expect even more of the global bond market to fall into negative yield territory. Half of all government [...]Read More >

May 22, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Ultimately, markets are the complex social action of human beings. Because of that they are driven by human emotions: fear and greed.” -Mark Finn CPI was reported this morning and there is a slight whiff of concern in the air.  Fresh data showed consumer prices [...]Read More >

May 15, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Anyone in investments should know that when you add together a number of uncorrelating returns, something magical happens.” - David Harding of Winton Capital Management This week let’s take a look at current market valuations (high) and what they are telling us [...]Read More >

May 8, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Everyone has to think about what will happen to their wealth when interest rates change direction.” - Peter Briger, CEO and Co-CIO of Fortress Investment Group “By 2020, 70% of assets will be held by retirees and pre-retirees." - Salim Ramji, BlackRock’s Global [...]Read More >

May 1, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal  "Earnings don't move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve board.  And whatever you do, focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity.  Most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures.  It's liquidity that [...]Read More >

April 24, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal  "The most difficult thing is the decision to act, the rest is merely tenacity." - Amelia Earhart Understanding when a recession might begin is important to our long-term financial health. Why? The stock market declines approximately 40% during recessions. I’ve [...]Read More >

April 17, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “I’m not predicting a crash, I’m just saying the risk reward of going early (Fed raising rates) is better than going late.” - Stan Druckenmiller I spent 45 minutes this morning watching the Bloomberg interview with Stan Druckenmiller.  I had a number of other [...]Read More >

April 10, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal  "I can't change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination." - Jimmy Dean Over the course of the first quarter, Standard and Poor’s lowered their forecast for 2015 earnings from $135 per share to $112 per share to $110 [...]Read More >