April 4, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal  “Deals are getting worse and worse for the investor, and they have been powerless to stop it. The only winners are issuers and their underwriters." - Martin Fridson I circle back to the high yield bond market frequently because I believe it will signal a coming [...]Read More >

March 27, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "When you are inspired by some great purpose, some extraordinary project, all of your thoughts break their bonds. Your mind transcends limitations, your consciousness expands in every direction, and you find yourself in a new, great, wonderful world." "When you [...]Read More >

March 20, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "The secret to my success is that I buy when everyone else is selling and I sell when everyone else is buying." - Sir John Templeton There were several charts that caught my eye this week.  The first is a chart that tells us the likely annual return for the [...]Read More >

March 13, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "We've gotten used to thinking of a zero interest rate as normal—it's far from normal." Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer I wrote a piece in Forbes this week titled “Rate Hike Ahead, Bond Model Says Sell”.  The gist of the piece is about a tug of war between [...]Read More >

March 6, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “Academics operate with an expression called recency. It basically means that we, as humans, assign greater relevance and importance to more recent events than we do to more distant ones. When equities delivered exorbitant returns during the great bull market of [...]Read More >

February 27, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal This past week Germany sold five-year debt at a negative yield for the first time in history. Read, wash, rinse and repeat. A negative yield for the first time in history. The problem globally is unmanageable debt. An investor gets to pay Germany money for [...]Read More >

February 20, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “I think the government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem and very often makes the problem worse.” - Milton Friedman A close friend bought a $1 million condo but he did something very unusual, he borrowed the mortgage loan in Yen instead [...]Read More >

February 13, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play” Jesse Livermore – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator There has been a lot of debate on the [...]Read More >

February 6, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal In ev'ry job that must be done There is an element of fun You find the fun and snap! The job's a game And ev'ry task you undertake Becomes a piece of cake A lark! A spree! It's very clear to see that A Spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down The [...]Read More >

January 30, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal I spend a great deal of time writing about valuations, probable future returns (near record lows today), portfolio construction and risk management. Reflecting on four days of non-stop sessions, media interviews and meetings at the Inside ETFs Annual [...]Read More >

January 23, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal “I often disdain economic forecasts as a stock market indicator. First, the consensus forecasts of economics are often wrong, and more importantly, the stock market tends to lead the economy, so it is like trying to put the cart in front of the horse.” Ned [...]Read More >

January 16, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal  “All I can do is advise you on what has happened before. Once one country goes, capital will look around and turn on whoever they think is next. Eventually, this will move from one to the next. The dollar will be the last man standing. After that, we are [...]Read More >

January 9, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal "We shouldn't be raising rates before 2016." Chicago Fed President Charles Evans Evans, a voting member on the central bank's policymaking committee, told CNBC this week. The market responded favorably. Evans said he's hopeful that inflation will pick up. [...]Read More >

January 2, 2015 By Steve Blumenthal Each month, I like to look at the market’s valuation to get a sense of potential upside reward relative to downside risk. Today, let’s look at three valuation measures, one based on reported earnings through 12-31-2014, one based on operating revenue, and the [...]Read More >

December 26, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal All cycles eventually come to an end.  In the case of commodity bulls, 16 years is the average duration.  The longest lasted 24 years (1896–1920), the shortest lasted 8 years (1972–1980), and the most recent secular bull ended in 2011 after 12 years. What [...]Read More >