September 26, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning."   - Albert Einstein Feeling like a kid in a candy store, I raced to catch an early morning train. I was heading to the Bloomberg Markets Most [...]Read More >

September 19, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal As the debt bubble steps forward, we search for signs of inflation and deflation. Some growth and inflation is apparent in the U.S. while it is deflation and recession pressures in Europe and Japan.  Which way are interest rates headed?  The year-to-date [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal September 12, 2014 “All About That Bass Because you know I'm all about that bass 'Bout that bass, no treble I'm all about that bass 'Bout that bass, no treble” It’s about a 35 minute drive to school each morning and, frankly, it is some of the best quiet time I have with [...]Read More >

September 5, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal Higher we go! While valuation and sentiment data scream caution, trend data and Fed policy tells us to continue the ride. Today, let’s take a look at the latest valuation charts and an updated look at Don’t Fight the Fed or the Tape. As you’ll see, the [...]Read More >

August 29, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal As we enter the last weekend of the summer, a bummer of a thought though I do favor the fall, I thought I’d keep this piece short and share with you what I found to be a very balanced and well thought-out view on the current state of the economy.  With granted [...]Read More >

August 22, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal To me, the next cyclical market down trend is linked to Fed Policy and the timing of their change in interest rate policy. For now,  I remain in the Don't Fight the Fed or The Trend camp (constructive on equities). So what happens when the Fed raises [...]Read More >

August 15, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal There is an argument being made that the currently high valuation measures (PE, dividends, price to book, price to sales) are really not so high when you consider that today’s interest rates are so low.  The thinking is that today’s ultra-low interest rates [...]Read More >

August 8, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal I was interviewed by a very bright Bloomberg fixed income reporter yesterday.  His area of expertise is high yield credit and he had recently read the piece I wrote for Forbes, Code Red in High Yield.  He jumped right in with question number one, “is this the [...]Read More >

August 1, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal Last week’s On My Radar discussed the coming default wave in the high yield market (Code Red for High Yield).  This week, I share a great piece from my good friend and long time partner, John Mauldin, titled Central Bank Smackdown. John notes the difference [...]Read More >

July 25, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal The risk in the high yield bond market is off the charts.  Yields are near record lows, bonds that shouldn’t be getting funding are and at terms unfriendly to investors.  A default cycle is in sight and unfortunately the nature of liquidity has changed.  This [...]Read More >

July 18, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “See life as a marvelous unfolding of possibilities and blessings!” -Author unknown I’m writing a piece for Forbes about high yield and I’d like to share with you the genesis of the piece (I’ll provide a link for you in next week’s On My Radar).  Simply, yields [...]Read More >

July 11, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal I was in Denver this week presenting at a large investor forum.  I shared with the audience two valuation charts I believe you will find interesting. One looks at forward PE (a measure I disfavor). The other is what Warren Buffett called “probably the best [...]Read More >

June 27, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal Wishing you a wonderful 4th of July holiday weekend.  I share the following in this week’s (shortened) On My Radar: CBS’s 60 Minutes - Steve Kroft reports on the alarming state of the federal disability program What is Tail-Risk Hedging? Trade Signals: [...]Read More >

June 27, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal I listened to a Lacy Hunt presentation this week.  In his view, debt is choking growth in the U.S. and the balance of the developed world and will continue to do so.  In short, he shared research detailing that when total debt gets above 275% GDP, growth slows [...]Read More >

June 20, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "The concept behind investor sentiment is that the stock market tends to be a manifestation of group psychology in motion.  Highs tend to coincide with extreme group enthusiasm and lows coincide with excessive group fear.  At extremes in opinion, the stock market [...]Read More >