August 22, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal To me, the next cyclical market down trend is linked to Fed Policy and the timing of their change in interest rate policy. For now,  I remain in the Don't Fight the Fed or The Trend camp (constructive on equities). So what happens when the Fed raises [...]Read More >

August 15, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal There is an argument being made that the currently high valuation measures (PE, dividends, price to book, price to sales) are really not so high when you consider that today’s interest rates are so low.  The thinking is that today’s ultra-low interest rates [...]Read More >

August 8, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal I was interviewed by a very bright Bloomberg fixed income reporter yesterday.  His area of expertise is high yield credit and he had recently read the piece I wrote for Forbes, Code Red in High Yield.  He jumped right in with question number one, “is this the [...]Read More >

August 1, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal Last week’s On My Radar discussed the coming default wave in the high yield market (Code Red for High Yield).  This week, I share a great piece from my good friend and long time partner, John Mauldin, titled Central Bank Smackdown. John notes the difference [...]Read More >

July 25, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal The risk in the high yield bond market is off the charts.  Yields are near record lows, bonds that shouldn’t be getting funding are and at terms unfriendly to investors.  A default cycle is in sight and unfortunately the nature of liquidity has changed.  This [...]Read More >

July 18, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “See life as a marvelous unfolding of possibilities and blessings!” -Author unknown I’m writing a piece for Forbes about high yield and I’d like to share with you the genesis of the piece (I’ll provide a link for you in next week’s On My Radar).  Simply, yields [...]Read More >

July 11, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal I was in Denver this week presenting at a large investor forum.  I shared with the audience two valuation charts I believe you will find interesting. One looks at forward PE (a measure I disfavor). The other is what Warren Buffett called “probably the best [...]Read More >

June 27, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal Wishing you a wonderful 4th of July holiday weekend.  I share the following in this week’s (shortened) On My Radar: CBS’s 60 Minutes - Steve Kroft reports on the alarming state of the federal disability program What is Tail-Risk Hedging? Trade Signals: [...]Read More >

June 27, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal I listened to a Lacy Hunt presentation this week.  In his view, debt is choking growth in the U.S. and the balance of the developed world and will continue to do so.  In short, he shared research detailing that when total debt gets above 275% GDP, growth slows [...]Read More >

June 20, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "The concept behind investor sentiment is that the stock market tends to be a manifestation of group psychology in motion.  Highs tend to coincide with extreme group enthusiasm and lows coincide with excessive group fear.  At extremes in opinion, the stock market [...]Read More >

June 13, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "Believe in yourself.  Have faith in your abilities!  Without a humble but reasonable confidence in your own powers you cannot be successful or happy."  - Norman Vincent Peale When I was young, I was crazy about soccer.  My dad, like many, was a baseball, [...]Read More >

June 6, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal One of the more challenging debates in our business is tied to the proper use of P/E (price/earnings) as a valuation measure.  One expert says P/Es are low, pointing to forward earnings estimates. The other says P/Es are high.  Buy at bargain prices or overpay? [...]Read More >

May 30, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “Nassim Taleb’s Antifragile: just as a parent who overly cocoons a child prepares that offspring poorly to function in the wider world, so policy makers intent on cushioning the private sector from every shock in the economic cycle are doing the overall system a [...]Read More >

May 23, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "Once in a while you will stumble upon the truth but most of us manage to pick ourselves up and hurry along as if nothing had happened."  - Winston Churchill Trading high yield bonds for nearly 24 years has taught me a thing or two about opportunity and risk.  [...]Read More >

May 16, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “Become a master observer.  Have the willingness to look at things that nobody else has bothered to look at. Identify points of meaning.  We learn when we observe.” Peyton Manning Famed quarterback Peyton Manning presented this morning at the Envestnet 2014 [...]Read More >