June 13, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "Believe in yourself.  Have faith in your abilities!  Without a humble but reasonable confidence in your own powers you cannot be successful or happy."  - Norman Vincent Peale When I was young, I was crazy about soccer.  My dad, like many, was a baseball, [...]Read More >

June 6, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal One of the more challenging debates in our business is tied to the proper use of P/E (price/earnings) as a valuation measure.  One expert says P/Es are low, pointing to forward earnings estimates. The other says P/Es are high.  Buy at bargain prices or overpay? [...]Read More >

May 30, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “Nassim Taleb’s Antifragile: just as a parent who overly cocoons a child prepares that offspring poorly to function in the wider world, so policy makers intent on cushioning the private sector from every shock in the economic cycle are doing the overall system a [...]Read More >

May 23, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal "Once in a while you will stumble upon the truth but most of us manage to pick ourselves up and hurry along as if nothing had happened."  - Winston Churchill Trading high yield bonds for nearly 24 years has taught me a thing or two about opportunity and risk.  [...]Read More >

May 16, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “Become a master observer.  Have the willingness to look at things that nobody else has bothered to look at. Identify points of meaning.  We learn when we observe.” Peyton Manning Famed quarterback Peyton Manning presented this morning at the Envestnet 2014 [...]Read More >

May 9, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “Man.  Because he sacrifices his health in order to make money.  Then he sacrifices money to recuperate his health.  And then he is so anxious about the future that he does not enjoy the present: the result being that he does not live in the present or the future: [...]Read More >

May 2, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal Valuations are flashing red.  Driven higher by QE, the markets have exceeded (as measured by John Hussman) the prior bubble records achieved in 2000 and 2007.  Brace yourself (and your portfolios). This doesn't mean markets can't move higher; central banks have [...]Read More >

April 25, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal “The Fed’s manipulations have left it in the position of a tightrope walker with no net; one who must exert all his energy in a concentrated effort just to keep moving forward, even as the slightest slip or unexpected gust could cause a catastrophic end to the [...]Read More >

April 11, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal The Fed owns 30% of all mortgage backed securities and nearly 25% of all the Treasury bonds.  Wow! Unimaginable, but real. I find myself frequently visiting the Fed’s website.  I particularly like Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher.  As a former fund [...]Read More >

Recent pieces have focused on the likely path to higher interest rates.  This is a major problem for all bond investors, especially if you have 40% or more allocated to bonds.  The vast majority of investors own bonds. I believe the bond market is experiencing a long-term secular bull peak.  With [...]Read More >

March 21, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal It was a big week for Chairwoman Janet Yellen.  Loved her transparency.  Can’t you just feel the collective investment world sitting on the edge of its seat?  We are all watching with concern and for good reason. So with interest rates front and center, [...]Read More >

March 14, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal It sure feels like we are moving towards a point of crisis.  The number two economy in the world is in serious decline; their customers' economies (mostly the U.S. and Europe) have slowed.  The great boom in China appears to be over.  Prime the printing presses [...]Read More >

March 7, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal On Thursday I spoke at the NWA Financial Fitness Forum sponsored by Mach-1 Financial Group in Northwest Arkansas.  The keynote for the event was former Governor Mike Huckabee.  He spoke about the mess in Washington (of course) and his deep belief that they have [...]Read More >

February 28, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal If the big bubble is in the bond market, as I believe, we need to keep a close eye on the direction of interest rates.  I have my own long-term fundamental views towards higher rates (Fed QE driven), but the question is when. Patience is required. As a [...]Read More >

February 21, 2014 By Steve Blumenthal One of the upcoming challenges for the Fed, aside from tapering, will be the decision to raise interest rates.  Keep in mind that the equity rally we have experienced has been largely fueled by the Fed (click here for a chart) and it is the end of this [...]Read More >