By Steve Blumenthal June 22, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2088 HY moved back to a buy signal early this week.  The asset class tends to be a leading indicator of both economic and stock market direction.  We had a great run and we are pleased.  Right now, the signal is for more “risk [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 15, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2071 You’ll see in the indicators below that gold continues to perform well and remains in a defined cyclical uptrend.  High yield moved to a sell signal early in the week.  This was after a strong short-term performance gain.  The [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 8, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2119 At the time of this writing, the S&P 500 Index is 15 points away from making an all-time high (amen to that).  Are you as curious as I am as to how the current bull market compares to prior bull runs?  In a word - “aged.”  The [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal June 1, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2090 Two charts that update monthly are the “Global Recession Probability Model” and “The Economy vs. The S&P 500 Index.” Dating back to 1970, the Global Recession Probability Model has correctly predicted global recession [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 25, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2090 Extreme pessimism remains short-term bullish for the market.  High yield has done well since last week’s buy signal and continues to rally.  The Zweig Bond Model remains in a buy signal.  Trend is short-term positive but note that the [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 18, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2041 Release of the Fed minutes showed that members would support a rate hike if economic data improved.  The market immediately sold off.  Here are the change in odds as tracked by CME: June: 34 percent chance, up from 19 percent prior [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 11, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2069 I’m in Las Vegas this week at the SALT Alternatives Investment Conference.  I’ll share some high level notes in Friday’s “On My Radar.” The market remains range-bound.  Sentiment has improved, meaning investor sentiment is nearing the [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal May 4, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2051 Before you take the quick dive into this week’s Trade Signals, here is an interesting fun fact courtesy of Bespoke Investment Research. “Over the last five years, Mondays have been by far the worst days for the S&P 500 with an [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 27, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2090 From the Fed this afternoon: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed.  Growth [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 20, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2103 The supply/demand indicator turned bullish this week.  The process looks at a smoothed total volume of declining issues versus a smoothed total volume of advancing issues, using a broad market equity index.  This indication is another [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 13, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2077 Notable this week is the 13-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) line crossed above the longer-term 34-week EMA line.  Trend followers smooth the historical price performance and, when a shorter-term trend line crossed above or below, [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal April 6, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2062 I thought I’d share an idea with you today: An advisor client asked me how I use the CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap Momentum Index within a total portfolio.  My two cents is I like to have a systematic way, absent emotion, to raise [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 30, 2016 S&P 500 Index 2055 Investor sentiment remains neutral (the rally from extreme pessimism is impressive).  The best buying opportunities tend to come at points of extreme pessimism and the best hedging opportunities tend to come at points of extreme [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 23, 2016 S&P 500® Index 2036 Recall the extreme level of investor pessimism of just six weeks ago.  In fact, extreme negative investor sentiment readings were the norm last November through February.  I’ve been suggesting since December that extreme pessimism was [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 16, 2016 S&P 500® Index 2018 The long-term models, CMG Ned Davis Research (NDR) Large Cap Momentum Index and 13/34-Week EMA, inform our long-term market outlook.  The primary trend remains negative.  The long-term signals guide our cautious view on the market.  [...]Read More >