By Steve Blumenthal March 9, 2016 S&P 500® Index 1985 The extreme level of investor pessimism is abating.  The best market rallies begin at points of extreme pessimism.  Such pessimism is typically short-term bullish for the market.  However, the overall trend for equities remains down [...]Read More >

By Steve Blumenthal March 2, 2016 Now what? Previously I suggested several rally targets.  The first was 1900.  The second 1950. The third 2000.  The S&P 500® is nearing that test.  Overall, the cyclical trend picture has not changed.  The weight of technical evidence suggests a negative [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1908 By Steve Blumenthal February 24, 2016 I mentioned in last week’s post that the S&P 500® Index is nearing its February high at 1947.20.  Extreme investor pessimism supported a short-term rally and both the February high at 1947.20 and the 50-day moving average line [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1922 By Steve Blumenthal February 17, 2016 The trend remains negative for equities and is neutral for high yield.  Investor sentiment remains extremely pessimistic.  Such extreme readings are generally bullish for equites.  We are finally seeing the oversold rally. The [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1863 By Steve Blumenthal February 10, 2016 The trend remains negative for equities and high yield.  We continue to see relative strength leadership in utilities, fixed income, tax-free fixed income and gold.  Investor sentiment remains extremely pessimistic.  This supports a [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1884 By Steve Blumenthal February 3, 2016 Our primary equity market indicator, the CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap Momentum/Breadth Index remains in a “SELL.”  CMG HY is back in a “SELL.”  The market is not on solid footing. One of the indicators I like to watch and post [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1898 By Steve Blumenthal January 27, 2015 Pessimism remains extreme with the Weekly Sentiment at the lowest (most bearish) reading since 2011.  That supports a short-term bullish move.  I remain in the “hedge or sell the rallies” camp. Our Zweig Bond model moved to a sell [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1820 By Steve Blumenthal January 20, 2015 Our CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap Momentum Index remains the dominant signal, in my view (chart below).  It triggered a “Neutral” signal on June 30, 2015 suggesting a move to Treasury bills or “BIL” (cash) or hedge.  Additionally, [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1940 By Steve Blumenthal January 13, 2015 Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Equity Trade Signals: CMG NDR Large Cap Momentum Index:  Sell Signal – Bearish for Equities Long-term Trend (13/34-Week EMA) on the S&P 500 Index:  Sell Signal — Bearish for [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1981 By Steve Blumenthal January 6, 2015 The S&P 500 index is down 90 points since last week’s post.  An ominous start to the New Year.  My favorite weight-of-evidence chart that looks at both price momentum and market breadth, our CMG Ned Davis Research Large Cap [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2071 By Steve Blumenthal December 30, 2015 Investor pessimism remains extreme.  This is short-term bullish for the U.S. equity market.  Following are the most recent Trade Signals. Wishing you a Happy New Year! Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Equity Trade [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2057 By Steve Blumenthal December 23, 2015 To me, Ben Garrison’s cartoon entitled “Everything Is Awesome!!” pretty much captures the state of the current environment in which we find ourselves. Just the data please!  I was a bit shocked, as you may be as well, to see [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2047 By Steve Blumenthal December 16, 2015 Today is Fed day.  I’m posting this piece just prior to their interest rate decision.  My fingers are crossed for functional Wi-Fi – I’m traveling home from business in Salt Lake City.  And a few days on the snow. High-yield [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2044 By Steve Blumenthal December 9, 2015 “We’re looking at some real carnage in the junk-bond market.  This is a little bit disconcerting that we’re talking about raising interest rates with the credit markets in corporate credit absolutely tanking. They’re falling apart.” – [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2094 By Steve Blumenthal December 2, 2015 There is improvement in several of the charts this week.  Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed has moved back to neutral from -2.  For now, that is good news. You’ll also see that the trend data as measured by a weekly moving average [...]Read More >