S&P 500 Index 2089 By Steve Blumenthal November 25, 2015 Overall, from a trading perspective, I am now with a neutral view on equities.  Our CMG NDR Momentum Index (my favorite measure) which looks at momentum and market breadth remains in a sell signal.  However, the weekly 13-week vs. [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2071 By Steve Blumenthal November 18, 2015 The significant signal this week is the -2 reading on the Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed model.  The model looks at the technical health of the broad equity market (how are most stocks doing across the various sectors).  When the [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2075 By Steve Blumenthal November 11, 2015 Following below is my market, investor sentiment and economic dashboard. Notable this week is that excessive optimism remains despite the recent market sell-off.  Excessive optimism is short-term negative for equities.  Our trend [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2109 By Steve Blumenthal November 4, 2015 Following below is my market, investor sentiment and economic dashboard.  In short, excessive optimism is short-term bearish for stocks, there is a high risk of global recession (strong data/chart below), no signs of a U.S. [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2090 By Steve Blumenthal October 28, 2015 Short-term investor sentiment is now excessively optimistic which is short-term bearish for stocks.  The S&P 500 index sits today at 2090.  The next important resistance sits at 2100.  There is significant resistance at the prior [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2030 By Steve Blumenthal October 21, 2015 Investor sentiment has moved from “extremely pessimistic” (which is short-term bullish for the market) to neutral; however, the daily sentiment indicator is nearing “extreme optimism” (which would be short-term bearish for the [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2005 By Steve Blumenthal October 15, 2015 The CMG NDR Large Cap Momentum Index remains in a sell (June 30, 2015 at S&P 500 Index level 2063).  Two weeks ago, NDR’s Big Mo indicator moved to a sell signal and last week moved back to a buy signal.  I favor the CMG NDR [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1990 By Steve Blumenthal October 7, 2015 The market has rallied 100 points since last week.  We have reached a point of logical overhead resistance.  I share a few updates on our tactical strategies (continuing to pivot to bonds) and highlight an S&P 500 Index chart [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1884 By Steve Blumenthal September 30, 2015 With all of the market turmoil, the sell-off is quite normal by historical measures.  The Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) is down 16% from the high, the Nasdaq is down 13% from its high, the DJIA is down 12% and the S&P 500 [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1948 By Steve Blumenthal September 23, 2015 Our CMG Managed High Yield Bond Program is back in a Sell signal.  One of the things I’ve learned over my 20+ years of trading HY is that the HY bond market tends to be a good forward leading indicator for the stock market.  I came [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1986 By Steve Blumenthal September 16, 2015 Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Cyclical Equity Market Trend: Sell Signal 1. CMG NDR Large Cap Momentum Index: Sell Signal 2. 13/34-Week EMA on the S&P 500 Index: Sell Signal 3. NDR Big Mo: Neutral – Nearing a [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1956 By Steve Blumenthal September 9, 2015 I remain in the “sell the rallies” mind set.  Big MO is very close to triggering a sell.  Most all other indicators are negative on equities. The Zweig Bond Model is once again bullish on bonds. I’ll update you on the most recent [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1949 By Steve Blumenthal September 2, 2015 Since last week’s post the S&P 500 Index has rallied 77 points bounce off of last week’s Investor Sentiment Extreme Pessimism low.  A gain of 4.11%.  Following are several charts that look at the 2011 correction and today.  [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1872 By Steve Blumenthal August 26, 2015 Investor pessimism has reached extreme levels – expect a bounce.  That’s the positive news.  If you are not hedging your equity exposure, then it may make sense to raise cash on the coming rally.  Use rallies to raise cash. Find a [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2089 By Steve Blumenthal August 19, 2015 I’m moving up the level of risk due to several factors: One is a change in signal on volume demand vs. volume supply.  Selling pressure is dominating buying demand, which is a concern in a period of low liquidity. Valuations [...]Read More >