S&P 500 Index 2063 By Steve Blumenthal August 12, 2015 I believe China’s surprise Yuan devaluation keeps the Fed on hold.  Raising rates will further strengthen the dollar.  A stronger dollar may ultimately be our greatest market risk – triggering crisis in the $9 trillion EM U.S. [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2092 By Steve Blumenthal August 5, 2015 More buyers than sellers drives price higher.  One of the charts I post each week measures volume demand vs. volume supply.  The buy and sell signals are posted below.  A new buy signal was triggered on July 30, 2015.  This along [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2102 By Steve Blumenthal July 29, 2015 The aged cyclical bull market up trend remains in place; however, fewer stocks are holding the market up.  Our favorite Trend Model, Big Mo, is in decline but continues to favor stock exposure. As for bonds, the Zweig Bond Model [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2114 By Steve Blumenthal July 22, 2015 The title to this week’s update pretty much captures the weight of evidence. The market has rallied off of the Extreme Pessimism readings of just a few weeks ago and investor sentiment remains in area that has produced positive returns [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2111 By Steve Blumenthal July 15, 2015 Investor sentiment remains the major positive story for the market. Current readings reflect extreme pessimism which is historically bullish for the market. I see continued deterioration in trend evidence yet both Big Mo and the [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2081 By Steve Blumenthal July 8, 2015 Trend evidence is deteriorating with fewer stocks holding up the market.  One of my favorite equity market indicators fired a sell signal on 6-30-2015.  You can see that chart below. The Zweig Bond Model remains in a sell and our High [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2075 By Steve Blumenthal July 1, 2015 I have a bit of an “out there” market view.  I believe that the stock market will go even higher despite the fact that the current cyclical bull market is overvalued, over-believed and aged.  Fundamental to this view being right is being [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2112 By Steve Blumenthal June 24, 2015 Trend remains favorable but aged and it frankly feels tired.  Sentiment is now neutral and both the CMG HY and the Zweig Bond Model remain in sell signals. I posted this next chart on our Advisor Central blog page. This is from John [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2120 By Steve Blumenthal June 18, 2015 Short-term Investment Sentiment has reached Extreme Pessimism – suggesting a bullish equity investment posture. Interestingly, investor sentiment, as measured by NDR’s Daily Trading Sentiment Composite, has been in the extreme pessimism [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2115 By Steve Blumenthal June 10, 2015 Trend evidence remains favorable as measured by Big Mo and the 13/34-Week Moving Average. Volume Demand continues to be stronger than Volume Supply (which is bullish for stocks). That last indicator (highlighted below) shows that on [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2115 By Steve Blumenthal June 3, 2015 Note today the Zweig Bond Model’s “Buy” signal for bonds. The data takes into account price activity and is updated weekly based on Friday closing data.  The last three days have been wild. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has gone from [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2123 By Steve Blumenthal May 27, 2015 A quick summary:  Sentiment is neutral and the overall trend, while aged, remains positive.  The Zweig Bond Model remains in a “Sell” signal suggesting shorter-term bond exposure is favored.  High yield remains the strongest bond asset [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2126 By Steve Blumenthal May 20, 2015 The equity market trend remains positive as measured by Big Mo, 13/34-Week EMA and Volume Demand.  Investor sentiment is neutral (neither excessively optimistic nor pessimistic).  I continue to tilt bullish though the cyclical trend is [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2100 By Steve Blumenthal May 13, 2015 The bond market has been under pressure with the yield on the 10-year Treasury going from 2.05% (April 30, 2015) to 2.28% (today May 13, 2015).  The Zweig Bond Model signaled “SELL” on May 4 when the 10-year was yielding 2.13%. Our CMG [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2075 By Steve Blumenthal May 6, 2015 The Zweig Bond model moved to a “SELL” signal this week signaling a move to shorten higher quality bond maturity duration.  Our CMG Managed HY Bond Program is neutral and we remain long HY bond exposure.  Momentum has declined and is [...]Read More >