S&P 500 Index 2010 By Steve Blumenthal January 14, 2014 Today, along with the updated cyclical trend and sentiment charts, let’s take a look at margin debt and liquidity. You’ll see that margin debt is at a record high and liquidity is very low - not a favorable combination. However, the [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2026 By Steve Blumenthal January 7, 2015 The last several Investor Sentiment extremes (too much optimism) have done a pretty good job at identifying market correction turning points. After peaking at the second highest reading since late 2004, the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll is [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2084 By Steve Blumenthal December 31, 2014 The weight of evidence continues to support the continuation of the current cyclical bull market trend. Risk is high as the equity market remains overvalued and the cyclical trend aged. Investor sentiment has once again reached [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2082 By Steve Blumenthal December 24, 2014 The weight of evidence continues to support the aged cyclical bull market. Click here for my recently published Forbes article discussing the probabilities for 2015. Risk is high and the equity market is expensive. Let’s keep a [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2012 By Steve Blumenthal December 17, 2014 It didn’t take long for the extreme optimism to diminish. I remain in the buy the dip camp. Sentiment is nearing extreme pessimism and we have entered the seasonally favorable time of year. Oil and geopolitical risk is front and [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2060 By Steve Blumenthal December 10, 2014  “We are 5.75 years into the mega-bull market that began in 2009. That is a very long period for even mega-bulls. Compare it with bulls from 1923 (5.83 years), 1994 (5.75 years), and 2002 (5.0 years).” Ned Davis (Ned’s Insights [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2070 By Steve Blumenthal December 3, 2014 Volatility is picking up in high yield. The decline in the price of oil has heightened concern for the survivability of energy related high yield bonds. Our high yield bond strategy hit its stop-loss level and we moved to short-term [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2069 By Steve Blumenthal November 26, 2014 In short summary: Trend evidence remains positive as measured by Big Mo and the 13/34-Week EMA on the S&P 500. Sentiment is far too bullish suggesting short-term caution. Sentiment has reached the extreme bullish state about [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2049 By Steve Blumenthal November 19, 2014 In short summary: Big Momentum (“Mo”) still says go yet excessive optimism warns to expect a sell-off. I remain modestly bullish on equities. Buy the dips and own equities but hedged. Risk remains high due to high valuations and the [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2039 By Steve Blumenthal November 12, 2014 Technical evidence remains positive. Big Momentum (“Mo”) is in a buy signal since October 14, 2011 and trend evidence (as measured by the 13/34-Week EMA - see chart 2) is positive. Investor sentiment has moved quickly from [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2023 By Steve Blumenthal November 5, 2014 Technical evidence remains positive. Big Momentum (“Mo”) is in a buy signal since October 14, 2011 and trend evidence (as measured by the 13/34-Week EMA - see chart 2) supports the continuation of the current cyclical bull market [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1985 By Steve Blumenthal October 29, 2014 Technical trend evidence remains positive and investor sentiment evidence continues to support a short-term recovery uptrend. The market remains expensively priced, the cyclical bull is aged - risk is high. Included in this week’s [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1941 By Steve Blumenthal October 22, 2014 Big Mo and the 13/34-Week EMA remain in cyclical bull market trends. Sentiment is extremely pessimistic (which is also bullish)and support held. The Zweig Bond Model continues to signal long-term bond exposure and high yield is back [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1835 By Steve Blumenthal October 15, 2014 The S&P 500 is down nearly 10% from its September high of 2019. The good news is investor pessimism is extreme. I’m going to tilt back the risk meter just a bit as investor pessimism is now at levels of extreme pessimism and the [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1935 By Steve Blumenthal October 8, 2014 All but a few sectors of the stock market are under pressure. Many are below their 50 and 200 day moving averages and more stocks are declining than advancing. The health of the market is in decline; however, the overall trend [...]Read More >