S&P 500 Index 1948 By Steve Blumenthal October 1, 2014 The weight of evidence continues to support the cyclical bull. Trend evidence is favorable and short-term sentiment has reached extreme pessimism (bullish for the market). High yield remains in decline (typically a leading indicator [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1998 By Steve Blumenthal September 24, 2014 Commentary is unchanged from last week. The charts are all updated. I include an additional high yield bond trend chart – thus the creatively boring title: HY’s in Decline. Included in this week’s Trade Signals: • Cyclical [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1984 By Steve Blumenthal September 17, 2014 Too Few Bears: You have to go all the way back to October 1987 to find a period that matched today’s lack of bearishness. We are now at a 27 year sentiment extreme showing complete lack of downside concern on the part of [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1984 By Steve Blumenthal September 10, 2014 We can look at valuation measures to asses the degree of market risk and to get an idea as to what forward probable returns might look like (by most all measures, low). Yet overvalued markets can grow to be more and more overvalued. [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 2002 By Steve Blumenthal September 3, 2014 Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Cyclical Equity Market Trend: Cyclical Bullish Trend for Stocks Remains (as measured by Big Mo and 13/34-Week EMA S&P 500 Index chart) Weekly Investor Sentiment Indicator - NDR Crowd [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1997 By Steve Blumenthal August 27, 2014 I posted the following chart on Wednesday, August 13.  Short-term sentiment was extremely negative suggesting an oversold rally for the market.  The S&P 500 Index was at 1933.  It closed above 2000 for the first time in history [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1983 By Steve Blumenthal August 20, 2014 The following commentary is unchanged from last week’s post - the charts are updated through today: Despite my personal feelings that: the cyclical bull market is aged, profit margins have likely peaked (and will likely [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1933 By Steve Blumenthal August 13, 2014 Despite my personal feelings that: the cyclical bull market is aged, profit margins have likely peaked (and will likely mean revert), the market is meaningfully overvalued and over-owned, and margin debt is high and cash [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1917 By Steve Blumenthal August 6, 2014 Along with each week’s equity and fixed income trade signal charts, this week I include a chart showing low available cash and a one showing high margin debt. Big Mo remains in a cyclically bullish buy signal for equities and the [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1965 By Steve Blumenthal July 30, 2014   Big Mo remains in a cyclically bullish buy signal for equities and the Zweig Bond Model remains in a cyclically bullish buy signal for bonds.  Investor sentiment remains extreme. Included in this week’s Trade [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1986 By Steve Blumenthal July 23, 2014 Big Mo remains in a cyclically bullish buy signal for equities and the Zweig Bond Model remains in a cyclically bullish buy signal for bonds.  Don't fight the Fed or the trend supports further gains; however, the overall level of risk is [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1973 By Steve Blumenthal July 16, 2014 Big Mo remains in a cyclically bullish buy signal for equities and the Zweig Bond Model remains in a cyclically bullish buy signal for bonds. I believe the overall level of investment risk is high due to excessively high valuations and [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1976 By Steve Blumenthal July 9, 2014 Charts are updated - the commentary is unchanged from last week:  Big Mo remains bullish and the Zweig Bond Model remains in a bullish buy signal for bonds.  Both trends remain positive. I believe the overall level of risk is high due to [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1975 By Steve Blumenthal July 2, 2014 Big Mo remains bullish and the Zweig Bond Model remains in a bullish buy signal for bonds.  Both trends remain positive. I believe the overall level of risk is high due to high valuations and investor optimism.  That doesn’t mean the [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1958 By Steve Blumenthal June 25, 2014   Big Mo remains bullish and the Zweig Bond Model remains on a bullish buy signal for bonds.  Both trends remain positive. I believe the inherent level of risk is high as indicated in the above Risk Meter because both valuations [...]Read More >