S&P 500 Index 1946 By Steve Blumenthal June 18, 2014 Retail investor sentiment has caught up with other sentiment indicators.  Understandably nervous after two 50% declines (2002 and 2008/09), individual investors are feeling optimistic. For investors last to get back into the game - their [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1944 By Steve Blumenthal June 11, 2014 I highlight the following chart this week showing how much stocks are owned as a percentage of total household financial assets.  The idea is to see if we can get a sense for just how optimistic or pessimistic individual investors are [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1927 By Steve Blumenthal June 4, 2014 I favor a probability-based view towards risk.  On Friday, I’ll update the most recent (updated through May month-end) valuation charts and share some data on inflation, current investor mutual fund/ETF holdings and margin debt. Today, [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1913 By Steve Blumenthal May 28, 2014 There are a number of ways one can measure the equity markets’ primary trend.  My favorite cyclical bull/bear market trend chart is NDR’s Big Mo.  As you’ll see in the most recent chart below, Big Mo remains constructive on the market.  [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1884 By Steve Blumenthal May 21, 2014 The cyclical trend for both stocks and bonds remains bullish.  Sentiment is once again mixed with short-term sentiment back in the Extreme Pessimism zone (a bullish reading) while my favorite sentiment indicator remains neutral. I’ve [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1893 By Steve Blumenthal May 14, 2014 I’ve updated the charts and please note that the commentary remains largely unchanged from last week’s post. Included in this week’s Trade Signals: Investor Sentiment: Crowd Sentiment Poll is Nearing Extreme Optimism Cyclical [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1873 By Steve Blumenthal May 7, 2014 Since 1950, nearly all of the S&P 500’s gains have come from October 31 through April 30; last year we saw 10% added in that time frame.  We have just entered the “Sell In May And Go Away” period.  The question is, should one follow [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1879 By Steve Blumenthal April 30, 2014 Investment sentiment is unusually mixed.  My favorite sentiment indicator is the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll (based on weekly data).  It continues to remain neutral (neither excessively optimistic nor excessively pessimistic).  You’ll see [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1875 By Steve Blumenthal April 23, 2014 Included in this week’s Trade Signals are the usual weekly sentiment and cyclical trend charts along with an update on the Zweig Bond Model: Investor Sentiment: Crowd Sentiment Poll Neutral, Daily Trading Sentiment Composite Extreme [...]Read More >

Trade Signals – Mixed Investor Sentiment S&P 500 Index 1843 By Steve Blumenthal April 16, 2014 Sentiment has become more constructive. The Daily Trading Sentiment Composite is back in the Extreme Pessimism (Bullish) zone supporting a further rally. The cyclical trend as measured by Big [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1852 By Steve Blumenthal April 9, 2014 I was pretty aggressive with my call to hedge in last week’s Trade Signals (What Was I Thinking).  That view remains unchanged. While the equity markets cyclical trend remains bullish, the seasonal patterns are concerning and with [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1885 By Steve Blumenthal April 2, 2014 If you have yet to put some form of portfolio protection in place, I believe it wise to have it in place by month end.  I’m referring specifically to your long-term equity portfolio exposure (your stocks for the long run).  I do not [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1865 By Steve Blumenthal March 26, 2014 We are nearing the end of QE.  In last week’s On My Radar titled, The Likely Path to Higher Rates, I posted a great chart that suggests the Fed will begin hiking rates sooner and/or more aggressively than previously expected. One of [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1860 By Steve Blumenthal March 19, 2014 Surprisingly, given the global stress, sentiment remains at extreme optimism.  The cyclical bull market trend continues to be the dominant trend and the story supporting the market remains Fed policy (and global central bank liquidity). [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1868 By Steve Blumenthal March 12, 2014 We’ve been doing some additional work around the risk on and risk off buy and sell indicators that Big Mo generates.  I share some of that data below (under the Big Mo chart). Take a look. Included in this week’s update (the usual [...]Read More >