S&P 500 Index 1687 By Steve Blumenthal August 7, 2013 Following are the most recent Investor Sentiment and Cyclical Trend charts.  Investor Sentiment remains in the Extreme Optimism or “Bearish” zone. As a quick aside, years ago I was the elected Chairman of a non-profit industry [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1685 By Steve Blumenthal July 31, 2013 I met Rob Arnott several years ago at John Mauldin’s 60th birthday party and have been a big fan since.  Yesterday I visited with Rob at the Four Seasons Hotel in Philadelphia.  He was presenting his thoughts on the markets, forward [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1682 By Steve Blumenthal July 24, 2013 Investor Sentiment as measured by the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll (Chart 1) has moved higher into Extreme Optimism (Bearish). The average sentiment extreme peak since 1995 is 68% bullish.  The current level is 69.5%.  You can see in Chart [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1682 By Steve Blumenthal July 17, 2013 Investor Sentiment as measured by the NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll (Chart 1) has moved back into the Extreme Optimism (Bearish) zone.  I recommend re-establishing hedges for risk management purposes but continue to note that the cyclical bull [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1656 By Steve Blumenthal July 10, 2013 Investor Sentiment continues to support the bullish market view (Extreme Pessimism was touched last week and I became more constructive with the S&P 500 at 1609).  I remain modestly bullish from a trading and risk management [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1605 By Steve Blumenthal July 3, 2013 Investor Sentiment dropped into the Extreme Pessimism zone over the past week and has since moved back into the Neutral zone.  This is a statistically positive event as evidenced by the 15.1% gain/annum.  There is good support at 1560 on [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1602 By Steve Blumenthal June 26, 2013 Investor Sentiment continues to move lower within the Neutral zone and is very close to moving into the Extreme Pessimism (Bullish) zone. Following are the most recent Investor Sentiment charts, reflecting the current cyclical bullish [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1648 By Steve Blumenthal June 19, 2013 Investor Sentiment remains in the Neutral zone.  I note that our CMG Managed HY  Bond Program moved back into high yield bonds yesterday.  High yields have historically been a good indicator of market trend.  A short-term [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1612 By Steve Blumenthal June 12, 2013 Investor Sentiment is finally working off Extreme Optimism.  I share the most recent Investor Sentiment charts, a valuation chart and a few technical charts that indicate logical levels of market support. Sentiment Update – [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1610 By Steve Blumenthal June 5, 2013 Investor Sentiment remains extreme.  The High Yield bond market continues to decline in price.  The equity markets remain under pressure.  We'll see how much of the overbought, over-bullish environment will be worked off.  I'm watching for [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1649 By Steve Blumenthal May 29, 2013 Investor Sentiment remains extreme.  We are also seeing some initial cracks in the bond market (i.e. rising interest rates).  The CMG Managed High Yield Bond Program moved to a sell signal last week and with yields hitting record lows [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1669 By Steve Blumenthal May 22, 2013 Sentiment Update – Extreme Optimism Investor Sentiment remains in the Extreme Optimism zone.  Risk remains elevated. Investment Sentiment charts 5-21-2013: Chart 1.  NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll – Extreme Optimism (Bearish) – I [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1657 By Steve Blumenthal May 15, 2013 Sentiment Update – Extreme Optimism Investor Sentiment remains in the Extreme Optimism zone.  I continue to suggest a hedged approach as it relates to your long-term equity portion of your portfolio.  The cost is relatively nominal and [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1626 By Steve Blumenthal May 8, 2013 Sentiment Update – Charts and my “two cents” Investor Sentiment remains in the Extreme Optimism zone.  I continue to favor inexpensive hedges to risk protect long equity market exposure (i.e. covered calls and out of the money put [...]Read More >

S&P 500 Index 1597 By Steve Blumenthal May 1, 2013 Sentiment Update – Charts and brief comment Investment Sentiment charts 4-30-2013: No change from comments made last week.  Following are this week’s sentiment charts: Chart 1.  NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll – Neutral (Bearish) – I REMAIN [...]Read More >