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On My Radar: A Story As Old As Time

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January 17, 2025
By Steve Blumenthal

“Because my game has been to bet on the markets and because the debt markets drive just about everything, I have been obsessed with studying debt dynamics for decades. I believe that if you understand these dynamics, you can do very well as an investor, businessperson, or policy maker, and if you don’t, you ultimately will be hurt by them.”

– Ray Dalio, Founder, CIO Mentor and Member of the Bridgewater Board

In my view, the most critical global macro issue to understand is to know where we are in the long-term debt cycle. This week, I highlight chapter one of Ray Dalio’s soon-to-be-published new book, How Countries Go Broke. 

Debt is a story as old as time. I woke this morning thinking about the film, The Big Short (2015), so please bear with me as I set the stage, examining its hypothetical sequal. 

There’s no single formula, but core elements and common themes often contribute to a captivating plot. We see them repeatedly in our favorite films. 

Core Elements of a Screenplay: 

  • Compelling Protagonist: Viewers need someone to root for. We need to connect with their journey, goals, strengths, and flaws, like Luke Skywalker’s path to becoming a Jedi. 
  • High Stakes: The protagonist has something significant to lose, creating suspense. The higher the stakes, the more invested we become—for example, winning the championship, getting rescued, saving the world, etc. 
  • Relatable Conflict: Conflict is the engine of any story. Whether internal, external, or societal, the conflict must resonate with viewers on some level. 
  • Rising Action and Twists: A good plot builds momentum: obstacles become more challenging, unexpected turns keep us guessing, and the stakes escalate, keeping viewers on the edge of their seats. 
  • Satisfying Resolution: While not all movies have a happy ending, the resolution should feel earned, provide a sense of closure, and leave a lasting impact. 

Understanding debt dynamics and its economic impact doesn’t bode well for a good story. Still, Michael Lewis did a fantastic job writing the book The Big Short, which became an Academy Award-winning popular movie (best screenplay, best motion picture, and more). The compelling protagonists include:  

  • Michael Burry (played by Christian Bale): A brilliant but eccentric hedge fund manager with a glass eye and a social awkwardness that masks his genius. He’s the first to recognize the impending housing market crash and bets against it despite facing skepticism and ridicule. 
  • Mark Baum (played by Steve Carell): A cynical and morally conflicted hedge fund manager who struggles with the ethics of profiting from the impending financial crisis. He struggles with his anger at the system while trying to navigate the complexities of the situation. 
  • Charlie Geller (John Magaro) and Jamie Shipley (Finn Wittrock): Two young investors who start their own hedge fund and, with the help of Ben Rickert (Brad Pitt), also bet against the housing market. Their underdog story and outsider perspective add another different dimension to the narrative. 

Although each character had a different journey, they had different motivations with similar approaches; they were united by their recognition of the impending crisis and willingness to make a big bet against the established system. The stakes of their journeys pulled us from our reality into theirs and captivated us for two hours and ten minutes. You’re not alone if you walked away from the movie and left angry at the authorities. There was a happy ending for a select few, but not so happy for the many. 

My lights turned on when I received a call from my friend Mark Finn in the fall of ’07. Mark is a seasoned investor and mentor. He urgently asked, “Steve, do we have any subprime mortgages in our portfolio?” We were managing a modestly leveraged fund of hedge funds, and Mark directed several of his clients into it. I answered, “I don’t believe so, I’ll confirm.” I checked with our portfolio team and reported back, “No.” Concerned, I asked, “What’s going on?”   

Some of the now famous characters who profited from the housing market collapse began parading through Mark’s office in Virginia. Debt was out of control, and the hedge funds presenting to Mark had put on trades that shorted subprime debt instruments. Mark studied the problem and shared what he learned with me. I did further study and started writing about the potential size of the coming crisis in late 2007 and into 2008. Then, I believed the size of the problem was around half a trillion. My pessimism wasn’t pessimistic enough. It turned out to be several trillion and nearly brought down the U.S. and global financial system as we know it.  

The common rebuttal, “The housing market has never collapsed!” was false. Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns were gone. The government and Warren Buffet bailed out Bank of America. A few hedge funds, like Michael Burry’s fund, made billions betting the subprime mortgage market would collapse.  

I won’t watch The Big Short again. Living it in real time was enough. My burning contempt was towards the regulatory authorities and banks who enabled the problem. But we soldiered on. It’s a story as old as time.  

The sequel is being written today in real time; you can see the signs if you know where to look. I’m rooting for the innocent protagonists (you and me) to have a happy ending.  

Today, detach emotions and take in the data. No one knew for sure that we’d have a subprime crisis (though Michael Burry was pretty darn sure), and no one knows if, in the future, government debt will default or be deflated away by Fed printing presses. Our job is to assess the probabilities and make calculated bets. If you have been reading OMR for a while, you know I believe the probability of a debt crisis is high. I could be wrong; I hope I’m wrong. I want to do my best to be well-positioned regardless. Of course, risk exists to various degrees in everything, so nothing is a guarantee. 

Today’s story is similar to the last, as it involves debt but is different in source and size. Whether we like it or not, we are protagonists in the next blockbuster movie. Let’s shape the script. 

The Big Short, Part II:  

  1. Initial conflict: A debt problem larger than 2007/08 and the ability to win or lose even more. 
  2. We’ll need an inciting event: One that disrupts the status quo. 
  3. Rising Action: Debt payments become challenging. Foreign and domestic bond investors revolt. Politicians consider adjustments to Medicare and Social Security obligations.  
  4. Climax: The point of highest tension where the protagonist confronts the central conflict. This is often the most exciting and action-packed part of the movie. The debt bubble bursts, its crisis and something like what occurred in 2008 happens: The Fed Chairman, Treasury Secretary, select bankers, and legislators get in a room and hammer out a deal. Recall Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, Fed chair Ben Bernanke, Timothy Geithner, JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sach’s Lloyd Blankfein, SEC Chairman Christopher Cox, Lehman’s Dick Fuld, Bear Stearns Alan Schwartz, and FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair, to name a few. Two weekends were pivotal moments in the 2008 financial crisis, highlighting the fragility of the financial system and the difficult decisions faced by policymakers – March 15-16, 2008 (Bear Stearns) and September 13-14, 2008 (Lehman Brothers).   
  5. Falling Action: You and I face the consequences of being prepared. Loose ends are tied up, and the story winds down. 
  6. Resolution: The outcome of the story. The protagonist may have changed, learned something valuable, or achieved their goal. We restructure the debt, put hard value behind our currencies, restructure entitlements, and deal with the consequences… We get through it, and we soldier on. 

I keep saying the elephant in the room is unmanageable debt (rising action), and we are nearing the climax point in my hypothetical movie sequel. The plot takes 80-100 years to build, so we risk being lulled to sleep. However, since this story has the potential to end with a big bang, it is perhaps the most important concept for investors to get right.  

So, what can we do? Learn how systems work. Be prepared, then step back as if watching a movie unfold. Avoid investment areas that sit in the potential path of destruction. Low-yielding government debt, for example. There will be winning assets. Some plots are more complex than others. Debt is complex, but I think you’ll walk away after today’s post with a better understanding of the dynamics at play.  

If you have any questions after reading what I share below from Ray Dalio, contact me. I look forward to your questions and comments.  

Two requests for you: 1) Learn how debt functions, and 2) With that understanding, step above yourself and observe your emotions as you watch the story unfold. This will help you see the opportunities more clearly.  

Grab your coffee and find your favorite chair. Next, you’ll find the beginning piece from Ray Dalio that will help you better understand debt. It is chapter one of his upcoming book, How Countries Go Broke. It’s excellent.  

Also, my firm has just published its 2025 Investment Outlook report. If you are interested, you can sign up to receive it for free. You can access it here. Please note regulations require us to ask you a few questions to gain access to the piece. To be clear, this is neither investment advice nor a recommendation for you to BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY. Please consult your advisor.  

On My Radar: 

  • Ray Dalio, How Countries Go Broke: Introduction and Chapter One
  • 2025 Investment Outlook
  • Trade Signals: January 15, 2024 Update
  • Personal Note: The Daily Coach

See Important Disclosures at the bottom of this page. Reminder: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. My views may change at any time. The information is for discussion purposes only.

If you like what you are reading, you can subscribe for free.

How Countries Go Broke: Introduction & Chapter One

Ray Dalio,  Founder, CIO Mentor, and Member of the Bridgewater Board, January 13, 2025 

The following is an excerpt from Ray’s new book, How Countries Go Broke, which is available for pre-order here. 

Introduction 

Are there limits to a country’s’ debt and debt growth? 

What will happen to interest rates and all that they affect if government debt growth isn’t slowed? 

Can a big, important country that has a major reserve currency like the US go broke—and, if so, what would that look like? 

Is there such a thing as a “Big Debt Cycle” that we can track that will tell us when to worry about debt and what to do about it? 

These aren’t just academic questions for academic economists. They are questions that investors, policy makers, and most everyone must answer because the answers will have huge effects on all our well-beings and what we should do. But definitive answers don’t currently exist. 

At this time, some people believe that there isn’t any limit to government debt and debt growth, especially if a country has a reserve currency. That’s because they believe that the central bank of a reserve currency country that has its money widely accepted around the world can always print the money to service its debts. Others believe that the high levels of debt and rapid debt growth are harbingers of a big debt crisis on the horizon, but they do not know exactly how and when the crisis will come—or what its impacts will be. 

And what about the big, long-term debt cycle? While the “business cycle” is widely acknowledged and some people recognize that it is driven by a short-term debt cycle, that is not true for the big, long-term debt cycle. Nobody acknowledges it or talks about it. I couldn’t find any good studies or descriptions of it in textbooks, and even the world’s leading economists—including those who are now running, or in the past ran, central banks and government Treasuries—didn’t have much to say about this critically important subject when I explored it with them. That is why I did this study and am passing it along. 

Before I get into all that, I should begin by explaining where I’m coming from. I don’t come to this subject as an economist. I come as a global macro investor who for over 50 years has been through many debt cycles in many countries and has had to navigate and understand them well enough to bet on how they would go. I have carefully studied all the big debt cycles over the last 100 years, and superficially studied many more from the past 500 years, so I believe that I understand how to navigate them. Because I am now deeply concerned, I feel a responsibility to pass along this study for others to assess for themselves. 

To gain my understanding, I look at many cases like a doctor studies many cases, examining the mechanics behind them to understand the cause/effect relationships that drive their progressions. I also learn from being in these experiences, reflecting on what I learn, writing it up, and having smart people read and challenge it. Then I build systems to place my bets on what I learned and have new experiences. I do that over and over and will do it until I die because I love it. Because my game has been to bet on the markets and because the debt markets drive just about everything, I have been obsessed with studying debt dynamics for decades. I believe that if you understand these dynamics, you can do very well as an investor, businessperson, or policy maker, and if you don’t, you ultimately will be hurt by them. 

Through my research, I discovered that there are big, long-term debt cycles that have unfailingly led to big debt bubbles and busts. I saw that only about 20% of the roughly 750 currency/debt markets that have existed since 1700 remain and that all these remaining ones have been severely devalued through the mechanistic process I am going to describe in this study. I saw how this big, long-term debt cycle was described in the Old Testament, how it repeatedly played out in Chinese dynasties over thousands of years, and how time and again it has foreshadowed the fall of empires, countries, and provinces. 

These Big Debt Cycles have always worked in timeless and universally consistent ways that are not well understood but should be. In this study, I hope to explain how they work with such clarity that my description will serve as a template that can be used to see what is going on with, and what is likely to happen to, money and debt. While I recognize that the Big Debt Cycle template I will describe has not previously been vetted, I am confident it exists because I have made a lot of money using it to bet on how things would go. I am passing it along because I am now at a stage of life in which I want to share what I have learned that I have found of value. You can do what you like with it. 

Why do I think I understand something that others don’t? I theorize that this is for a few reasons. First, this dynamic is not widely understood because big, long-term debt cycles typically last about one lifetime—roughly 80 years (give or take 25 years)—so we don’t get to learn about them through experience. Second, because we focus so much on what is happening to us at the time it is happening, people overlook the big picture. I also think there are biases against being concerned about too much debt because most people like the spending ability that credit gives them, and it is also true that there have been many warnings about pending debt crises that never happened. Memories of big debt crises like the 2008 global financial crisis and the European debt crisis of the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) have faded, and since we have gotten past them, many people assume that policy makers learned how to manage them rather than view these cases as early warnings of bigger crises on the horizon. But whatever the reason, it doesn’t matter exactly why these dynamics are overlooked. I am going to paint a picture of what happens and why, and if there is enough interest in what I’m saying, my template will be assessed and will live or die on its merits. 

That leads me to a principle: 

If we don’t agree on how things work, we won’t be able to agree on what’s happening or what is likely to happen. For that reason, I need to lay out my picture of how the machine works and try to triangulate with you and other knowledgeable people about it before moving on to look at what’s happening and what might happen. 

At a time when government debt is large and increasing rapidly, it seems to me dangerously negligent to assume that this time will be different from other times without first studying how other cases transpired. It would be like assuming that we will never have a civil war or world war again because they haven’t happened before in our lifetimes without studying the mechanics that brought them about in the past. (By the way, I believe that both the civil war and world war dynamics are also going on today.) As in my other books,[1] I will create a description of the archetypical dynamic and then look at how and why different cases transpired differently so that one can track current cases relative to the template and put into context what’s happening and what’s likely to happen. In that way, you will both see many cases of this happening and get a peek into the future. Comparing what is happening with that template leads me to believe that we are heading into one of those cases in which central governments and central banks will “go broke” in the ways that have happened hundreds of times before and have had big political and geopolitical consequences. 

This brings me to an important point. The Big Debt Cycle is just one of several interrelated forces that together make up what I call the overall Big Cycle. For example, 1) Big Debt Cycles influence and are affected by largely coinciding 2) big cycles of political and social harmony and conflict within countries that are both affected by and affect 3) big cycles of geopolitical harmony and conflict between countries. These cycles in turn are affected by both 4) big acts of nature, like droughts, floods, and pandemics and 5) developments of big new technologies. Combined, these five forces make up the overall Big Cycle of peace and prosperity and conflict and depression. Because these forces affect each other and practically everything, they must be thought of together. How these forces have worked and interacted and are working and interacting now is covered in much greater detail in my book and video titled Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order and to a lesser extent in Chapter 17 of this study, which is the concluding chapter. In this study, I will be mostly focusing on the Big Debt Cycle, though we will see many references to the ways in which the Big Debt Cycle interacts with the other forces to create the path that we are on. 

This study consists of four parts and 17 chapters. Part 1 describes the Big Debt Cycle, at first very simply, then in a more complete and mechanical way, and then with some equations that show the mechanics and help with making projections of what is likely to happen. Part 2 shows what has actually happened across 35 Big Debt Cycle cases, laying out in a detailed template the typical sequence of events that signifies how a cycle is transpiring and shows symptoms that can help identify how far the cycle has progressed. Part 3 reviews the most recent Big Debt Cycle, which started when the new monetary and world orders began in 1944 at the end of World War II and brings it up to the present. In that part, in addition to looking at the Big Debt Cycle and the overall Big Cycle with a focus on the US (because it has been the world’s major reserve currency country and the world’s leading power, thus making it the world’s leading shaper of what one might call the American world order since 1944), I also very briefly describe the Big Cycles of both China and Japan, showing them from the 1860s until now. This will give you a more complete picture of what has happened in the world since 1944 and provide two other Big Debt Cycle cases to look at. Finally, in Part 4, I will peek into the future, looking at what my calculations say about what is required for the US to manage its debt burden, and how the five big forces might unfold in the years ahead. 

Because I recognize that there are different readers who have different levels of expertise and want to give different amounts of time to this and I want to help you get what you want out of this, I put the most important points in bold so you can read just the most essential stuff and optionally dive into the details that interest you. I put what I believe are timeless and universal principles in italics. If you are a professional or aspiring professional who is really into economics and markets, I recommend that you read the whole thing because I believe that it will give you a unique perspective that you will enjoy and will help you to be successful in your job. If you are not, I recommend that you just read what is in bold. Also, because I’d love to have a two-way conversation with you to try to get in sync about what’s true and what to do about it, I am working on a few new technologies for doing that, which I will tell you about later. 

In the next chapter, I will describe the Big Debt Cycle in just seven pages. If you want to stop there, that’s perfectly fine. 

I hope that you will find the study’s analysis helpful. 

Part 1: Overview of the Big Debt Cycle 

Chapter 1: The Big Debt Cycle in a Tiny Nutshell 

PLEASE CLICK ON THE PHOTO TO LINK TO THE FULL PIECE. 

Source: Ray Dalio, LinkedIn

Please note that the information provided is not recommended for buying or selling any security and is provided for discussion purposes only. Current viewpoints are subject to change.

Trade Signals: January 15, 2024 Update

Market Commentary: Watch Out for -2

The Fed has cut interest rates by 100 bps since September 2024. Over the same time, the yield on the 10-year Treasury yield increased by approximately 115 bps. Higher, not lower, with the rate cuts.

There have been 11 interest rate-cutting cycles in the last 40 years. Only the current cycle has seen market-based interest rates respond this way.

The market is moving in the exact opposite direction of the Fed.

Something is wrong!

In my view, market participants see the maturing Treasury debt calendar. New bonds will need to be issued to replace the maturing bonds. We are talking trillions.

The interest expense on the U.S. budget is currently running at approximately $1.2 trillion. To put this in perspective, the total U.S. government budget is approximately $7 trillion. We are spending $2 trillion more than we are taking in (tax revenues, etc.). In addition to repapering maturing debt, we must issue $2 trillion to fund the overspending at significantly higher interest rates.

The current outstanding U.S. government debt is more than $36 trillion. The breaks are broken – there seems to be no stopping this freight train.

Here’s the problem:

Medicare is the most significant expense at approximately $1.7 trillion.

Social security is next at nearly $1.5 trillion (over 20% of your tax dollars are going to pay interest expenses alone), and

The interest expenses budget line item is set to challenge or Medicare and Social Security when maturing bonds repaper at much higher rates.

Do you feel good? I’m sure don’t. I’m pissed!

What I believe is happening is that the ‘bond vigilantes’ are starting to rise.

Watch Out for -2:

The signal is infrequent, and while not perfect, pay attention. I’ve written about watching both the Fed and the Tape (trend and breadth of the stock market). You could argue that the Fed is cutting interest rates, and that is true, but the idea is to watch what is happening to interest rates in the market, and as we discussed above, rates are rising. I follow an indicator Ned Davis Research called Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed.

It looks at the performance of the S&P 500, when analyzed yearly against these composite indicators, suggests that following market trends (the Tape) and monetary policy (the Fed) can be beneficial in assessing the level of market risk to investors. This supports the investment adage “Don’t fight the Tape or the Fed.”

The indicators that comprise this reading are a combination of NDR’s Big Mo and the 10-Year Treasury yield. It highlights just how important Fed activity is to market performance. Readings range from +2 to -2.

  • Bottom line: when both the Trend in interest rates (lower yields) and the Trend in the overall market (the tape) are bullish, the market has historically performed best. When bearish (-2), the market has historically performed worse. 

The signal triggered -2 this week. Lights on!

If you are not a subscriber and would like a free sample, reply to this email, and we’ll send you this week’s post.

Trade Signals is designed for traders and investors seeking a better understanding of technical trends in various markets. Click on the link below to subscribe or login. The letter is free for CMG clients; reply to this email or contact your CMG rep.

TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

The views expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Personal Note: The Daily Coach

“Do it, even if you’re afraid.”

– Tina Nguyen

I recently signed up to receive emails from The Daily Coach. Below is a recent post that shared their “Top 5 Most Loved” articles.

Several years ago, I had the privilege of hearing Michael Lombardi speak at a conference. As the grandson of the legendary Vince Lombardi and a former NFL coach, Michael shared powerful insights on leadership. He told a story about an Atlanta Falcons wide receiver who was incredibly talented but not a great teammate.

Here’s how it went: During the preseason, the team gathered at the practice facility, where buses waited to take everyone to a team-bonding event—bowling. The wide receiver, fresh off signing a massive contract, pulled up to the buses in his new Bentley. When the coach asked him to get on the bus with the rest of the team, the player refused. Instead, he suggested the coach ride with him in the Bentley. To everyone’s surprise, the coach climbed in.

At that moment, a team bonding opportunity turned into a moment that sent the wrong message. The coach chose the player over the team.

Michael explained that only five teams in the NFL consistently have the right culture to succeed. The difference? Great leaders foster a culture of team, family, and togetherness. One player—no matter how skilled—isn’t enough.

Then Michael shared advice I’ll never forget: “Fire your threes, and your twos become ones.”

In this framework, the “ones” are your superstars—first to practice, last to leave, hardworking, and willing to do whatever it takes for the team. The “threes,” like that wide receiver, are selfish, me-first players who disrupt the team dynamic. The “twos” are in the middle, not fully bought in yet. Some lean toward the threes; others gravitate toward the ones.

By removing the threes, you create a culture where the twos step up, becoming ones. The team grows stronger, works harder, and becomes more unified.

This principle doesn’t just apply to sports—it’s great advice for business, too. Looking back, I’ve worked with a few “threes” and was too slow to cut ties. Hopefully, I’ve learned my lesson.

I now receive daily emails from The Daily Coach. While I don’t read every single one, I really enjoy the ones I do. As a sports enthusiast, this kind of wisdom always resonates with me.

You can subscribe for free here.

From The Daily Coach:

You’ve probably come across an article of ours over the years, but since 2019 we’ve sent out a newsletter every day. It’ll take you years to get caught up on all that we’ve written (stay tuned for some new ways to catch up), but here are the 5 newsletter that are most loved by sports executives, coaches, business leaders, and athletic directors that read The Daily Coach:

Top 5 Most Loved

  1. The Childlike Appetite of Pete Carroll
  2. Steve Kerr’s 4 Core Leadership Principles
  3. The Roots of the Miami Heat’s Game 7 Win
  4. ‘Handle Hard Better’
  5. The 4 Quadrants of Performance
  6. Bonus: Pat Riley, Inside-Out Interview Series

Pete Carroll is timeless, not because of his youthful appearance — rather for the love he brings with him each day. 

During his time with the Warriors, Steve Kerr has dealt with highs and lows, from his own medical issues to those of his own team. But with each, he has taken the same approach. Miami Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra delivered a powerful message after his team’s Game 6 loss that set the tone for its Game 7 win.

Recently, Duke Women’s Basketball Coach Kara Lawson shared a powerful message with her players, encouraging them to “handle hard better.” So how do we do this?

Danny Meyer, maybe the most famous restaurateur in the United States, uses a quadrant model to evaluate his employees’ skillsets and motivations. We might benefit from knowing it.

Bonus: Pat Riley, Inside-Out Interview Series

Kind of fun, right? I hope you enjoy them, and if you don’t have a dog in the hunt, root for my Philadelphia Eagles. Go Birds!!!

Have a great weekend! 

With kind regards,

Steve

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Stephen B. Blumenthal
Executive Chairman & CIO
CMG Capital Management Group, Inc.
Private Wealth Client Website – www.cmgprivatewealth.com
TAMP Advisor Client Webiste – www.cmgwealth.com

Forbes Book – On My Radar, Navigating Stock Market Cycles.  Stephen Blumenthal gives investors a game plan and the advice they need to develop a risk-minded and opportunity-based investment approach. It is about how to grow and defend your wealth. You can learn more here.

Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG Capital Management Group in 1992 and serves today as its Executive Chairman and CIO. Steve authors a free weekly e-letter entitled, “On My Radar.” Steve shares his views on macroeconomic research, valuations, portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk management.

Follow Steve on Twitter @SBlumenthalCMG and LinkedIn.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

This document is prepared by CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. (“CMG”) and is circulated for informational and educational purposes only. There is no consideration given to the specific investment needs, objectives, or tolerances of any of the recipients. Additionally, CMG’s actual investment positions may, and often will, vary from its conclusions discussed herein based on any number of factors, such as client investment restrictions, portfolio rebalancing, and transaction costs, among others. Recipients should consult their own advisors, including tax advisors, before making any investment decision. This material is for informational and educational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned. This material does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors which are necessary considerations before making any investment decision. Investors should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, where appropriate, seek professional advice, including legal, tax, accounting, investment, or other advice. The views expressed herein are solely those of Steve Blumenthal as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. 

Investing involves risk.

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This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses realized or unrealized, by any CMG client from any specific funds or securities. Please note: In the event that CMG references performance results for an actual CMG portfolio, the results are reported net of advisory fees and inclusive of dividends. The performance referenced is that as determined and/or provided directly by the referenced funds and/or publishers, has not been independently verified, and does not reflect the performance of any specific CMG client. CMG clients may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. See in links provided citing limitations of hypothetical back-tested information. Past performance cannot predict or guarantee future performance. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please talk to your advisor.

Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its accuracy. This document is general communication and is provided for informational and/or educational purposes only. None of the content should be viewed as a suggestion that you take or refrain from taking any action nor as a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, or other such purposes.

In a rising interest rate environment, the value of fixed-income securities generally declines, and conversely, in a falling interest rate environment, the value of fixed-income securities generally increases. High-yield securities may be subject to heightened market, interest rate, or credit risk and should not be purchased solely because of the stated yield. Ratings are measured on a scale that ranges from AAA or Aaa (highest) to D or C (lowest). Investment-grade investments are those rated from highest down to BBB- or Baa3.

NOT FDIC INSURED. MAY LOSE VALUE. NO BANK GUARANTEE.

Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.

In the event that there has been a change in an individual’s investment objective or financial situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with his/her investment professional.

Written Disclosure Statement. CMG is an SEC-registered investment adviser located in Malvern, Pennsylvania. Stephen B. Blumenthal is CMG’s founder and CEO. Please note: The above views are those of CMG and its CEO, Stephen Blumenthal, and do not reflect those of any sub-advisor that CMG may engage to manage any CMG strategy, or exclusively determines any internal strategy employed by CMG. A copy of CMG’s current written disclosure statement discussing advisory services and fees is available upon request or via CMG’s internet web site at www.cmgwealth.com/disclosures. CMG is committed to protecting your personal information. Click here to review CMG’s privacy policies.