March 3, 2023
By Steve Blumenthal
“If they stand behind you, defend them. If they stand next to you, respect them, If they stand against you, defeat them.”
– The Wolf’s Crede
I attend several investment conferences every year, and the best one, hands down, is the conference hosted by WallachBeth Capital. It brings together 140 investment professionals from across the country to discuss markets, ETFs, and private equity and share ideas. This year’s conference, hosted in Park City, Utah, concluded yesterday.
JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs presented on the economy—which ended up being a fitting follow-up to last week’s On My Radar: Hard or Soft? discussion. One company leaned toward a “hard” landing; the other toward “soft.” Time will tell which one is correct. I’ll share their outlooks with you next week.
Other sponsors and attendees included State Street, Invesco, Primark Capital, BNY Mellon, CBOE, Milliman Financial Risk Management, Nasdaq, Elkhorn Consulting, First Trust, 3Edge Asset Management, Morningstar, the New York Stock Exchange, select ETF sponsors, and investment managers.
Sessions were held in the morning; we’d break just before lunchtime—just in time to gear up and head out to the mountain for the afternoon. I learned a lot and enjoyed spending time with good friends, old and new.
What’s clear from our discussions: Inflation stands against the Fed, and the Fed is fighting to defeat it. At the same time, the fight between the Fed and inflation stands against investors. We must fight to defeat them both.
But let’s save the fighting for another day. Today is one of our precious “SNODAZE” and I’m going to follow this guy’s lead and get out of town…
Grab a good coffee, but skip the chair—this week’s reading is a quick one. There are a few Random Tweets followed by this week’s Trade Signals. Last week, I mentioned high yield as a leading indicator of the stock market and the stock market as a leading indicator of the economy (recession/expansion).
High yields remain in a sell signal, and the Zweig Bond Model continues to point to higher interest rates (and, therefore, lower bond prices). Keep your seat belts fastened. It’s going to be a long and potentially bumpy ride.
(Reminder: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. My views may change at any time. The information is for discussion purposes only.)
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Random Tweets
Chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s next meetings (March, May, June, and July):
Mortgage rates by decade:
Sage advice:
Harald Malmgren:
More Random Tweets next week. Follow me @SBlumenthalCMG.
If you are not signed up to receive the free weekly On My Radar letter,
you can subscribe here.
Trade Signals: Code Red
March 1, 2023
S&P 500 Index — 3,951
Market Commentary: Code Red
Trend evidence has weakened across the board in the U.S. equities, fixed income, international, and emerging markets. It is red across the Trade Signals Dashboard. This week and going forward, I’ve included trend indicators for international developed and emerging market equities. You’ll find additional commentary, the Trade Signals dashboard, and charts with explanations.
Stay on top of the current trends with “Trade Signals.”
Over time, markets move in cycles from bull-to-bear and bear-to-bull. There are short-term cycles and dominant long-term cycles. Trade Signals provides a weekly summary of technical indicators designed to identify where we sit within these cycles in the stock, bond, currency, commodity, and gold markets. Additionally, stock market valuations are informative in terms of probabilities for coming 10-year annualized returns. You’ll find valuation and forward return updates each week to help you identify when investment return opportunities are best/least. Finally, Trade Signals also tracks investor sentiment indicators and economic and select recession watch indicators.
Trade Signals is Organized in the Following Sections:
- Market Commentary
- Trade Signals – Dashboard of Indicators
- Current Stock Market Valuations and Subsequent 10-year Returns
- Charts with Explanations
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Trade Signals is now a low-cost subscription service. You can find the archive of weekly Trade Signals posts (2008 through 2-15-23) by clicking here.
Please email me at blumenthal@cmgwealth.com if you have any questions.
Not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any security. For information purposes only.
Please talk with your advisor about needs, goals, time horizons, and risk tolerances.
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Personal Note: No Visibility
I went to Utah a day before the conference started to join a few friends at Snowbasin Mountain. The snow was deep—very deep—and soft. Check out the below photo of me at the top of Snowbasin’s Strawberry Fields lift. The photo looks out of focus, but it isn’t: We were in a total whiteout. What we thought was up was down, and what we thought was down was up.
It was a mere 20 degrees and snowing hard, with the wind howling sideways. We asked someone to point us in the right direction, then inched ourselves forward. Luckily, a few hundred yards later, the visibility improved. Ahead of us was fresh, untracked snow. Might sound awful, but I promise it was beautiful. Let’s hope it’s a metaphor for financial times ahead…
Today’s introductory quote came from the mountain, in fact. More specifically from the bottom of the snowboard of my good friend, and the conference emcee, Andy McOrmond. It reads, “If they stand behind you, protect them. If they stand beside you, respect them. If they stand against you, defeat them.” Wise words.
The quote on the tail of Andy’s Snowboard
As a reminder, to listen to the audio recordings of OMR, follow On My Radar on Spotify. I recommend the Ray Dalio and Howard Marks episodes—they are excellent.
I will have much to share with you in next week’s On My Radar. Until then, I’m wishing you a great week!
Steve
Stephen B. Blumenthal
Executive Chairman & CIO
CMG Capital Management Group, Inc.
Private Wealth Client Website – www.cmgprivatewealth.com
TAMP Advisor Client Webiste – www.cmgwealth.com
If you are not signed up to receive the free weekly On My Radar letter, you can sign up here. Follow me on Spotify, Twitter @SBlumenthalCMG, and LinkedIn.
Forbes Book – On My Radar, Navigating Stock Market Cycles. Stephen Blumenthal gives investors a game plan and the advice they need to develop a risk-minded and opportunity-based investment approach. It is about how to grow and defend your wealth. You can learn more here.
Stephen Blumenthal founded CMG Capital Management Group in 1992 and serves today as its Executive Chairman and CIO. Steve authors a free weekly e-letter entitled, “On My Radar.” Steve shares his views on macroeconomic research, valuations, portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk management.
Follow Steve on Twitter @SBlumenthalCMG and LinkedIn.
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